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Tuesday, May 10, 2005

Immigration Reform Compromise?

QandO spotlights the Kennedy/McCain plan for immigration reform which looks an awful lot like the one Bush floated and quotes this article:
Kennedy is teaming up with GOP maverick Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) to launch the massive immigration reform bill this week. Conservative critics are expected to consider such a plan tantamount to amnesty for illegal aliens - setting the stage for acrimonious debate on Capitol Hill over immigration.

``These reforms will make our immigration policies more realistic and enforceable,'' said Kennedy (D-Mass.)

The Kennedy-McCain plan is expected to include a provision to permit some of the estimated 11 million undocumented workers in America to apply for the renewable visas.
If people would sit down and think for a bit they would realize we can't start enforcing prohibitions against employing illegal workers without doing something of this nature. You can't suddenly remove 10 million workers from an economy without inflicting massive damage on the economy. So it is time to seek some middle ground.

This is also a national security issue.


Comments:
Gindy - oddly enough, my first reaction was the same. Of the two of them I think I trust Kennedy more, though. I have lost faith in McCain since his jaunt into restricting the First Amendment. I always thought he was a bit erratic and now I think he's unsafe to drive at any speed.
 
Take a look back though and you realize Kennedy is part of what brought us to where we are now. Changes were needed back in 65 less than they are now...but he was wayyy off back then too!! Forgive the lengthy quote...back in 1965
Senate immigration subcommittee chairman Edward Kennedy (D-MA.) reassured his colleagues and the nation with the following:

"First, our cities will not be flooded with a million immigrants annually. Under the proposed bill, the present level of immigration remains substantially the same ... Secondly, the ethnic mix of this country will not be upset ... Contrary to the charges in some quarters, [the bill] will not inundate America with immigrants from any one country or area, or the most populated and deprived nations of Africa and Asia ... In the final analysis, the ethnic pattern of immigration under the proposed measure is not expected to change as sharply as the critics seem to think."

Sen. Kennedy concluded by saying,

"The bill will not flood our cities with immigrants. It will not upset the ethnic mix of our society. It will not relax the standards of admission. It will not cause American workers to lose their jobs." (U.S. Senate, Subcommittee on Immigration and Naturalization of the Committee on the Judiciary, Washington, D.C., Feb. 10, 1965. pp. 1-3.)
And of course if we look to the 80s...well that was a pack of lies as well we were sold...Neither McCain nor Kennedy should step within 1 foot of anything even remotely dealing with immigration or illegal aliens...
 
Wow, great stuff from all of you guys. I do think Immigration will be a major hotbutton issue in the upcoming elections. And you're so right MoM -- it is absolutely an issue of security. It will be interesting to see on which side candidates fall.
 
Crystal, you are getting all professorial here! It's okay. I can always stand to learn something.

But isn't the problem that we are just not enforcing our own laws? That's what seems the most pressing problem to me. I was just reading the Financial Times and looking at the declining wages for workers....

Esther, my guess is that immigration will be the major national issue in the 2006 election. It has an obvious relationship to low wages for blue collar workers and security - two topics that the country as a whole cares about.
 
I think this is the stupid thing with the fines that would lead to amnesty. I am totally against it.
 
Then Trans Sient, what is your solution? To stop further illegal immigration we must enforce prohibitions against businesses hiring illegal immigrants. However with at least 10 million of them working, to suddenly do so would inflict genuine economic shock. We are talking about a disruption of the economy similar to the S&L crisis at a minimum and we could surely expect an ensuing recession.

What is your solution? Just closing the border is not going to work - we have too much of it.
 
MoM...I think there are several myths going on and I can't quickly dispel all of them!!...but I really don't believe: the 10-11 million are all working...but they are consuming services..many of them penal system services...Illegal aliens are a larger drain than they contribute and that continues over several generations...yes ...several....I absolutely agree that employer sanctions need to be applied but the current law is not easily prosecuted and needs to be scrapped. There is currently the ability for many employers to check information against a national database to see a person's eligibility...No surprise, it is not used as it should be...Unfortunately I need to run...class dismissed for now! :-) ????
 
I don't think rewarding anyone for breaking our laws is an answer. There is a legal process for getting here. It should be reformed, but not while allowing amnesty. Why should we expect immigrants to respect any of our laws if we don't enforce this one?
 
Crystal, I believe my figure of 10 million working is very conservative. I believe at least 20 million illegals have come into the country within the last 11 years.

My figure on illegals working is extrapolated from the number of bad SSN's encountered by the Social Security Administration. See this CIS report citing 8.3 million mismatches in 1999. And then there are a substantial number of people working off the books for whom no paperwork is filed. Obviously the problem has continued to increase.

A more accurate estimate for illegal workers would be something on the order of 14 million, but many of those are not as deeply integrated into the economy (day labor and so forth), so for the purposes of assessing the impact on the economy I am using the figure of 10 million.

I believe the government is willfully refusing to confront the magnitude of the problem because it can't face the political repercussions.

So I agree with your statement that illegal immigration has high costs, but now the government's unwillingness to address the problem has created yet another economic problem. It is almost as if we had set out to create the worst possible immigration policy.
 
Tran Sient, much as I agree with your position, I still can't agree that zapping 10 million people out of the economy suddenly is not going to have terrible effects.

A rolling program of enforcing immigration laws and slowly targeting one segment of employers of illegals might work. Economies can stand sudden changes.

I also firmly believe that the abysmal drop in real wages for the younger and least educated employees is strongly related to the ridiculously high rate of illegal immigration. Please see my prior comment however about the tax returns and the rate of bad SSN's.

The problem with all the amnesties is that they seem to have fueled illegal immigration. Whatever our policy is going to be, it must combine controlling the physical flow as far as possible, strong censures of employers who hire illegal aliens, and measures to detect and deport people who are here illegally.

In doing so one must be realistic and as non-abusive as possible. Creating a semi-underclass the way we have done is bound to cause huge social problems. Many of these people are very vulnerable to crime and exploitation.

I ask you again, what do you think might be a reasonable policy? It's not that I don't see the problems with our current policy - it's a travesty that is hurting everyone.
 
Whoops - I meant to say that economies can handle gradual changes but not sudden changes.
 
Some of these illegal immigrants had no choice but to come to this land of freedom. America opens its hands and welcomes diversity. If these illegal immigrants had a home back in their country, they wouldn't be here in the first place. They are not here to commit crime, they want to live with freedom, happiness, just like all of us. There are children here who have grown up and can write and read english and want to become doctors but can't because of the lack of help to pursue a degree or career and go to college. Lets hold hands together and pass this bill... For the best for all of us... Just imagine how many more doctors, nurses, and how much better America can become if we all just have the opportunity to become something. After all, isn't America, the land of opportunity? So don't think illegals are bad people, they are very kind at heart, just want a chance to live, so lets make this world a better place. peace :)
 
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