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Friday, January 06, 2006

A Further Turkey-Bird Flu Update

Over 1,000 people tried to get into hospitals today. Some people were taken as far away as Istanbul for treatment. Police were reported as escorting people out of hospitals. HaberTurk described it as panic.

This HaberTurk article seems to give preliminary positives for bird flu in Van as 100, and samples have been forwarded to a university for further analysis and inclusion in the running tally.

No cases of H5N1 have been confirmed in birds in the affected areas yet. They are still waiting for test results.

Still only three officially confirmed cases of human H5N1. There are three deaths out of the first admissions on December 31, but one of those deaths has not been confirmed as H5N1. Another person not all that sick did test positive.

This is a good summary of admissions:
Dec 31 - 4 cases (4 original siblings)
Jan 1 - 7 (add 2 relatives of siblings, one case from Van)
Jan 3 - 10 (add another set of 3 siblings)
Jan 4 - 15 (add a few more cases hosp. in Van)
Jan 5 - 31 (20 in Van, 6 in Igdir, 5 in Erzurm)
Jan 6 - 41 (29 in Van, 6 in Igdir, 5 in Erzurm, 1 in Ercis)
Jan 7 - 61 (35 in Van, 6 in Igdir, 5 in Erzurm, 1 in Ercis, 6 in Diyarbakir, 7 in Istanbul)

The numbers from Jan 4th on probably contain all the confirmed cases (cases they have done tests on), semi-confirmed cases (cases the hospital has admitted and thinks have bird flu), as well as cases mentioned in the media that day as being suspects, just admitted etc.
I would think that with people who have been exposed to birds swamping hospitals no more valid reporting can be expected. In a week the medical system has been overwhelmed, and there is still no evidence of H2H. Take it as a preview of what we could expect if true H2H erupted.

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