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Thursday, January 05, 2006

Update: Human Bird Flu Cases In Turkey

Further Update:
My Turkish is horrible, but this article seems to say that some suspected cases have been cleared but that 20 others have been confirmed. It's not clear how. According to the CurEvents.com thread on Turkey a third sibling from the same family died. The positive diagnoses for the first two were as a result of the autopsies on lung tissue. The Turkish authorities appear to be blocking the movement of humans and animals out of the affected area, but the affected area is steadily expanding. There are other hospitals with clusters of people now. See this.

There is at least one Turk participating in the CurEvents.com thread (Oric), so it's a good place to get news. Anyway, as far as I can figure it at an absolute minimum of 26 people are now in several hospitals with suspected cases, although at least eight others have been looked at and sent home. Tamiflu arrived in the area on Monday and is being used to treat suspected cases. Three siblings have died - the two confirmed cases and their sister. The general official strategy seems to be the same as used in prior animal outbreaks in Turkey - culling, isolation and observation of all human illness, and quarantine. But what's different is now humans are not only sick but dying.

The big H2H question will be answered next week if any nurses or doctors become ill, although I believe the authorities would have given the medical workers prophylactic Tamiflu courses. There have been persistent reports from Indonesia of nurses in satellite hospitals claiming that they became ill after treating bird flu cases. In those hospitals they probably didn't have the masks and gloves needed.

The affected area in Turkey is is very, very close to Iraq. The first hospital admission was December 31st. The area had no officially confirmed cases of H5N1 in poultry. The sudden outbreak here seems similar to the one reported in areas of the Ukraine in December, but there were no human cases reported in the Ukraine.

End Update
There may already be 18 people hospitalized, but there are at least 15. The virus does transmit human to human although not efficiently, so expect at least 40 cases most of which will never be officially confirmed.

The symptoms of the severe cases are bleeding from the throat and coughing. Three cases have been officially confirmed as H5N1. The Turkish Agriculture Minister is appealing for calm. In other words, they need to make sure people don't leave the area....

See Recombinomics. This is exactly what Dr. Niman predicted a couple of months ago, btw. His count is 26 human cases in several provinces. The bird droppings have hit the fan!

Your blog is great… I really enjoy reading it. Some of these postings are excellent.

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Tamiflu try these guys.
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