Thursday, June 09, 2011
If It's Thursday We Must Be Grumpy
Initial claims are hanging in there around 425,000, which is an uncomfortable level to be sure, although not disastrous. If continued, it's likely to be associated with slowly rising unemployment rates. That's why economists kind of consider it the recession line.
This trend WILL change. It will either go lower or go higher! But it is not going to hang in at this level with consumer inflation where it is. Also, this trend isn't really stemming from government layoffs. According to JOLTS, most of the drop in state and local jobs is coming from retirements. In a lot of cases, the state/local retirement crunch is just crushing municipal budgets - which means that replacement hiring will be restrained. But the rise in claims doesn't seem to be associated with government layoffs, which means that we are shedding some jobs in the private economy.
spent shoring up Social Security and the pension gauranty
fund instead of paying the TBTF for cause g this mess.
Can anybody show a lasting benefit from TARP besides
a goosed stock market ? When the market crashes again,
we'll have nothing to show for it but be left with the tab.
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