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Wednesday, August 03, 2011


Challenger job cut report. ADP employment report. Good, but they had a big miss last month. ADP has services employment doing great and production employment shading off.

Treasury data seems to indicate that ADP is a bit off, although the weakness probably kicked in later in July, so it may not have shown up in the July employment report survey week. However if the weakness doesn't show up in July, it will show up double in August.

Later today ISM Services, Factory orders and crude inventories.

Factory new orders, June. Not a good three month average there.

At this stage in the game paper product shipments in non-durables usually tell you a lot. For the prior two months shipments were down 1% each month; this month overall recorded a slight rise of 0.2%. Paperboard containers were worse and shipments dropped again in June by -0.7%. That was better than -2.0% and -1.3% of April and May. It appears that Mr. Packaging Guy was wise to hold off on that loan! The YoY YTD on paperboard is still up 4.8%, which gives you a better feel for how steep this drop has been. I usually find this to be a good intermediate indicator right before retail really starts stinking to high heaven.

Petroleum products supplied 4-week YoY -2%. Diesel 4-wk up 1.7%, but that's probably on heating oil. Gasoline down 3.6%????. Crikey. Maybe they just cranked out diesel because they could sell it.
4-week YoY net imports down 11.3%. YTD YoY net imports now -9.3%.

ISM services okay, especially after reading the European ones, but clearly declining. There's a pretty steady three month sequence now. Overall May-July 54.6 > 53.3 > 52.7. Backlog of orders 55.5 > 48.5 > 44.0. Export orders dropped from 57 in June to 49 in July. Not really surprising given the bad PMIs coming in from ROW, but hardly favorable. Inventories and inventory sentiment both too high and growing. Employment is still growing but it dropped significantly from June to July.


YTD YoY net imports now -9.3%

How the hell are the Chinese going to buy our debt???
Oil, Charles. That's oil.

Admittedly, we are not sparking the Chinese economy like we used to.
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