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Monday, September 19, 2011

Yikes - S&P, Italy,

Moody's was supposed to make a decision this fall, but S&P jumped in first. I understand their POV:
S&P said it lowered its outlook for Italy’s growth to a 0.7 percent annual average for 2011 to 2014, from a prior projection of 1.3 percent. “We believe the reduced pace of Italy’s economic activity to date will make the government’s revised fiscal targets difficult to achieve,” it said
The reaction will be interesting. Outlook negative. I guess the Fed and ECB will huddle and throw some more dollars into the ring tomorrow. I wonder if this will come up in FOMC? You would think so.

Maxed out Mama Mia ?
It's hardly a surprise, but "When it rains, it pours" sums up my reaction.

It is extremely difficult for a country to sustain growth and pay down a debt/GDP ratio that big. Italy is somewhere around 120%.

Their demographics are frightening.. They have about 11.5 million aged 0-19 years, and over 16.6 million aged 45-64.
Mark Steyn had it right. He pointed out that in Italy and Spain--traditionally very fecund--often today a child has no brothers, sisters, cousins, aunts or uncles. But four living grandparents....
Gordon - economics, like health, are a matter of keeping a basic balance. The demographics are a key part of it.

If you really want to get scared, check out GERMANY!
I used to have the standard thinking about population growth until I read a book called Chaos; it had a chapter about population algorithms (not necessarily human populations) and how a few thousand "generations" of the formula followed a discernible trend and then there would be a radical drop and then the next few thousand generations would not follow any trend, and then the next few hundred would follow a trend, etc. (I am over-simplifying.)

I figure there's no good reason human population should be any different - human population may be just as chaotic as other populations.
Of course!

The only difference in humans is that we tend to adapt our environment to ourselves, rather than the other way around.

But look at Europe's relatively recent population plunge during the Black Death. When challenges we can't overcome arise, our population crashes.

The next big cold spell surely will be such a challenge.
Have you seen this?
link . I wondered why Iceland fell off the radar screen. Now I know why. It's a hell of a thing to find out about this through a Facebook link!
When challenges we can't overcome arise, our population crashes.

The next big cold spell surely will be such a challenge.

You mean government and taxation can't stop climate change?
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