MaxedOutMama
Thursday, September 30, 2004
The Kerry Fallacy
(I posted some of this as a comment on QandO, but I will post this here for the record. In the unlikly event anyone ever reads it, maybe it will do some good.)
I don't disagree that Kerry did well, compared to his normal presentation of himself in tonight's debate.
But how can anyone take Kerry's objectives seriously, when they're analyzed? It's potato chip diplomacy - each bite tastes good, but the long-term results of such a diet are malnutrition and quite possibly a heart attack.
A summit, a summit, my kingdom for a summit? What on earth will a summit change? The European countries Kerry so wishes to align with are afraid to come out and be identified with the US. They won't change any of their behavior if Kerry is elected. We need to talk to the Arab countries, and Bush has been effective there. France and Germany will never support this phase of the war on terrorism.
The BBC tells me Clinton was the most popular American president abroad. Well, during his presidency France was excoriating us in the UN for the sanctions against Iraq. I remember it well. Both Germany and France were profiting by their behavior then, and they have even less reason now to support anything we do in the middle east.
As a result of this debate I am more certain than ever that Kerry is lost in a fantasy world. I sympathize greatly with him; I think his Vietnam experiences really were searing, and that his mind simply freezes now when he thinks about engaging in this type of war. He can't stomach this reality. But the reality we face now cannot be spun, twisted, ignored or alleviated diplomatically. Those who wish to attack us cannot be approached diplomatically - and the net result of what Kerry insists he wants to do is to wait for the next blow as a popular fellow. The popularity, I'm afraid, would be Kerry's, and the blow would fall on the population of the US.
There is a sort of genius in Bush's tactics. He was faced with an amorphous enemy that forms and dissipates like a cloud, and trying to strike at it with bombing raids as Clinton did was about as effective as trying to clear a fog by shooting at the densest parts of it. Bush created a vortex into which the water vapor is sucked. That vortex is Iraq.
This works because the terrorists are operating from an extreme ideology based on a very militant interpretation of Islam. They say they are defending Islam as Muhammed commanded. They swear jihad and martyrdom for Allah - but by their own ideology, they must go to Iraq to defend Islam, or be discredited in the Moslem world. It is that Moslem world that feeds them with money, refuge, and admiration. They cannot afford to be discredited.
The Bush administration picked the ground on which to fight and is now controlling the conditions. Who knows? Maybe Colin Powell reads Sun Tzu every night to go to sleep. Maybe GW does. Someone knows what they are doing. I am sure Kerry does not.
This policy may seem astonishingly cynical, but I heard many muttering about nuking the middle east in the immediate aftermath of 9/11. In the months after 9/11, no person I respect believed we could stop another, more deadly, terrorist attack. If such an attack were to occur, I can guarantee that the population of the US would support extreme measures. All desperate people are dangerous. We have the weapons, and sooner or later some president would use them.
The Bush administration's approach is actually a moderate approach. I know that there have been civilian casualties in Iraq - far too many. I know we have sustained casualities - far too many. But neither category is remotely as large as what we expected to happen, and the net result for Iraq (unless we flee without finishing) is that tens of thousands will live who would have died over the next decade. That estimate is good if one only counts those who would have been murdered by Saddam's thugs, and those who would have died of the disease of poverty as the result of the sanctions. Poverty is a disease that kills.
I can't say I contemplate all of this with a light or easy heart, but reality is sometimes terribly cruel. It is only wisdom and human compassion that alleviates nature's cruelty. When I read stories such as the Beslan massacre, I cannot convince myself that the terrorist Islamic ideology retains any tinge of wisdom or human compassion. When I read moderate Arab newspapers and see that the "moderates" cannot bring themselves to fully condemn the actions in Beslan, I can't convince myself that Bush is wrong. The extremists must be killed - they wish to force us to extreme actions, and they will succeed if the initiative is not taken.
I support all of those serving in Iraq, and thank them. I pray for the families of those wounded and killed. I hope Kerry does not get elected - because I think the long-term result of his election would be another Hiroshima, and another. We must avoid this, if we can. It is a terribly bitter mouthful of reality to swallow, but we must choke it down. I would gleefully and joyfully accept any real alternative to the Bush strategy, but Kerry is not offering me one. Kerry is only offering me the chance to pretend that this reality does not exist for a few short years. Thank you, Senator, but I'll decline..
I don't disagree that Kerry did well, compared to his normal presentation of himself in tonight's debate.
But how can anyone take Kerry's objectives seriously, when they're analyzed? It's potato chip diplomacy - each bite tastes good, but the long-term results of such a diet are malnutrition and quite possibly a heart attack.
A summit, a summit, my kingdom for a summit? What on earth will a summit change? The European countries Kerry so wishes to align with are afraid to come out and be identified with the US. They won't change any of their behavior if Kerry is elected. We need to talk to the Arab countries, and Bush has been effective there. France and Germany will never support this phase of the war on terrorism.
The BBC tells me Clinton was the most popular American president abroad. Well, during his presidency France was excoriating us in the UN for the sanctions against Iraq. I remember it well. Both Germany and France were profiting by their behavior then, and they have even less reason now to support anything we do in the middle east.
As a result of this debate I am more certain than ever that Kerry is lost in a fantasy world. I sympathize greatly with him; I think his Vietnam experiences really were searing, and that his mind simply freezes now when he thinks about engaging in this type of war. He can't stomach this reality. But the reality we face now cannot be spun, twisted, ignored or alleviated diplomatically. Those who wish to attack us cannot be approached diplomatically - and the net result of what Kerry insists he wants to do is to wait for the next blow as a popular fellow. The popularity, I'm afraid, would be Kerry's, and the blow would fall on the population of the US.
There is a sort of genius in Bush's tactics. He was faced with an amorphous enemy that forms and dissipates like a cloud, and trying to strike at it with bombing raids as Clinton did was about as effective as trying to clear a fog by shooting at the densest parts of it. Bush created a vortex into which the water vapor is sucked. That vortex is Iraq.
This works because the terrorists are operating from an extreme ideology based on a very militant interpretation of Islam. They say they are defending Islam as Muhammed commanded. They swear jihad and martyrdom for Allah - but by their own ideology, they must go to Iraq to defend Islam, or be discredited in the Moslem world. It is that Moslem world that feeds them with money, refuge, and admiration. They cannot afford to be discredited.
The Bush administration picked the ground on which to fight and is now controlling the conditions. Who knows? Maybe Colin Powell reads Sun Tzu every night to go to sleep. Maybe GW does. Someone knows what they are doing. I am sure Kerry does not.
This policy may seem astonishingly cynical, but I heard many muttering about nuking the middle east in the immediate aftermath of 9/11. In the months after 9/11, no person I respect believed we could stop another, more deadly, terrorist attack. If such an attack were to occur, I can guarantee that the population of the US would support extreme measures. All desperate people are dangerous. We have the weapons, and sooner or later some president would use them.
The Bush administration's approach is actually a moderate approach. I know that there have been civilian casualties in Iraq - far too many. I know we have sustained casualities - far too many. But neither category is remotely as large as what we expected to happen, and the net result for Iraq (unless we flee without finishing) is that tens of thousands will live who would have died over the next decade. That estimate is good if one only counts those who would have been murdered by Saddam's thugs, and those who would have died of the disease of poverty as the result of the sanctions. Poverty is a disease that kills.
I can't say I contemplate all of this with a light or easy heart, but reality is sometimes terribly cruel. It is only wisdom and human compassion that alleviates nature's cruelty. When I read stories such as the Beslan massacre, I cannot convince myself that the terrorist Islamic ideology retains any tinge of wisdom or human compassion. When I read moderate Arab newspapers and see that the "moderates" cannot bring themselves to fully condemn the actions in Beslan, I can't convince myself that Bush is wrong. The extremists must be killed - they wish to force us to extreme actions, and they will succeed if the initiative is not taken.
I support all of those serving in Iraq, and thank them. I pray for the families of those wounded and killed. I hope Kerry does not get elected - because I think the long-term result of his election would be another Hiroshima, and another. We must avoid this, if we can. It is a terribly bitter mouthful of reality to swallow, but we must choke it down. I would gleefully and joyfully accept any real alternative to the Bush strategy, but Kerry is not offering me one. Kerry is only offering me the chance to pretend that this reality does not exist for a few short years. Thank you, Senator, but I'll decline..
