MaxedOutMama
Friday, December 17, 2004
Turkey/EU Update
Okay, so I'm fascinated by the EU. It's quite a drama, and in a way it forms an experiment testing something I've been thinking about since I was in elementary school - was the American union, with its political freedoms, essentially derived from the historical accident of economic freedom, or did our political freedoms come from a cultural decision? I suspect that democratic institutions cannot be sustained without genuine economic freedom, but does genuine economic freedom cause democratic political institutions to evolve? Developments in China make this a highly relevant question.
It's not looking all that great for Turkey right now. I'll have a much more comprehensive update next week, but for today, just this brief summary. Turkey is supposed to be offered "open-ended" membership talks beginning in October, with the condition of recognizing Cyprus first. That is significant because Chirac wants to hold a referendum to approve the EU Constitution in France in the spring, and he is afraid the membership talks for Turkey will derail that. The Socialist party in France disapproves of membership for Turkey.
If membership talks fail, the EU is not supposed to "abandon" Turkey, but allow it to keep a privileged position. In other words, the eventual outcome could go either way, and the proposed agreement is unlikely to settle the issue. Here is another article from the Turkish Press covering the same issues in more detail. The UK and Germany are strong backers of Turkey. France and Austria are basically against the prospect of Turkey ever getting full voting rights under the new EU Constitution. Bickering continues as I write.
France and Germany are squabbling over who is first among equals on the continent, and Schroeder continues a desperate search for a country willing and able to pay for arms imports AND acceptable to the EU. From over here it sure looks like France is afraid of a German/Turkish alliance and a resurgent Germany. I still think Chirac is overplaying his hand; Germany is coping with reunification as well as the stress of conforming to EU standards, and its internal situation may rapidly be becoming explosive. Furthermore, Germany wants its UN Security Council seat, and is seeking allies to attain that goal. France, of course, finds this unadvisable.
Meanwhile, Berlusconi is quietly elevating Italy's position in the EU, in no small part because he speaks more directly than the traditionalists. He does sound statesmanlike in this article. Berlusconi threw down the economic gauntlet recently by proposing major changes in the EU economic rules to shift towards more economic growth; Berlusconi is proceeding domestically with a pro-growth strategy of lower income taxes. I believe the original restrictions were largely a function of Germany's deathly fear of inflation, so it is possible Berlusconi will eventually prevail unless Germany's economic stagnation can be alleviated.
It's not looking all that great for Turkey right now. I'll have a much more comprehensive update next week, but for today, just this brief summary. Turkey is supposed to be offered "open-ended" membership talks beginning in October, with the condition of recognizing Cyprus first. That is significant because Chirac wants to hold a referendum to approve the EU Constitution in France in the spring, and he is afraid the membership talks for Turkey will derail that. The Socialist party in France disapproves of membership for Turkey.
If membership talks fail, the EU is not supposed to "abandon" Turkey, but allow it to keep a privileged position. In other words, the eventual outcome could go either way, and the proposed agreement is unlikely to settle the issue. Here is another article from the Turkish Press covering the same issues in more detail. The UK and Germany are strong backers of Turkey. France and Austria are basically against the prospect of Turkey ever getting full voting rights under the new EU Constitution. Bickering continues as I write.
France and Germany are squabbling over who is first among equals on the continent, and Schroeder continues a desperate search for a country willing and able to pay for arms imports AND acceptable to the EU. From over here it sure looks like France is afraid of a German/Turkish alliance and a resurgent Germany. I still think Chirac is overplaying his hand; Germany is coping with reunification as well as the stress of conforming to EU standards, and its internal situation may rapidly be becoming explosive. Furthermore, Germany wants its UN Security Council seat, and is seeking allies to attain that goal. France, of course, finds this unadvisable.
Meanwhile, Berlusconi is quietly elevating Italy's position in the EU, in no small part because he speaks more directly than the traditionalists. He does sound statesmanlike in this article. Berlusconi threw down the economic gauntlet recently by proposing major changes in the EU economic rules to shift towards more economic growth; Berlusconi is proceeding domestically with a pro-growth strategy of lower income taxes. I believe the original restrictions were largely a function of Germany's deathly fear of inflation, so it is possible Berlusconi will eventually prevail unless Germany's economic stagnation can be alleviated.
