MaxedOutMama
Sunday, January 30, 2005
Condi's First Challenge
The mood in Turkey has shifted rapidly since the middle of December. If Turkey truly felt it was likely to gain membership in the EU, I doubt this would be happening. Obviously they have assessed events and fear that it is an unlikely possibility, although Erdogan is still saying it will happen. And now both the generals and Erdogan are openly speaking of Kirkuk, and the possibility of sending a military force into Iraq is being brought up by various politicians and military heads within Turkey. Some of this talk is obviously aimed at trying to get the US to prevent a strong Kurdish regional government from being formed in northern Iraq.
From the Turkish Press, listening to Basbug:
(The Kurds appear to be a small majority) and:
Namik Tan speaks diplomatically:
'
From the Turkish Press, listening to Basbug:
Northern Iraq is not only a shelter for PKK militants, but also a place of ‘political activities.’ This is a serious threat for Turkey, but the US doesn’t act against this. Changing the demographic structure in Kirkuk shows the nationalistic ambitions of the Kurds. Words about targeting Diyarbakir slip out of Massoud Barzani and Jalal Talabani. Would they not use the PKK against Turkey? The US doesn’t take any action about Kirkuk. What are Turkey’s choices? Should it enter Iraq and take Mosul? Should it break up with the US and look for other allies? Basbug has clearly explained the choice of a military operation into the region by reminding of the period in 1923-26. Mustafa Kemal Ataturk refused to make military operations to Mosul, which was included in the national border of Turkey. We could enter Mosul, but we would find ourselves in a very difficult situation at that time. We agreed on today’s borders in 1926 and we are loyal to it. Today’s situation in the region is worse than it was in the 20’s.From Spiegel's English-language press review:
The second choice is to search for other allies than the US. Basbug reminded that the situation in Iraq is not caused by any bad intentions of the US, but by US not being able to dominate the events in Iraq. ‘Our relations with the US is so broad and comprehensive that we can’t relate them with a single issue unless it is a vital one,’ said Basbug. We have to strengthen our relations with the US. A valid option for Turkey would be to use its diplomacy with the support of our political, economic and military potential.
We have to ask the questions of how our Kurdish citizens are influenced by Turkey’s stance in Iraq and how we can develop economic and social integration policies to strengthen our national unity? Turkey is entering a very difficult period.
The paper also notes the bitter fight for power and influence in the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk. The Kurds want the oil-rich city to become a fourth province in their region, but the city is home to many Arabs who are resisting the move. To assuage the Kurds, Iraqi officials have said they will allow them to vote in regional elections, which could lead to the Kurds getting the most power in the regional council.
(The Kurds appear to be a small majority) and:
The fact that Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said an election victory of the Kurds in Kirkuk would be a "reason for war," has created a special problem for Europe, which is considering Ankara for EU membership. The conservative daily Die Welt notes that Iraq and Turkey have shared a border since 1919 and Ankara has never turned its sights from it, since Kurds are located on both sides. Since the first Iraq war in 1991, when the US began patrolling the skies separating the Kurdish northern Iraq from southern Iraq, the Kurds have lived in relative autonomy. Now, if the US leaves, the region will be left to its own devices, and "it will only be a matter of time before Kurds in the north (Turkey) and the south (Iraq) unite." That, Ankara, believes, would create an existential crisis for the Turkish state. The situation could backfire for politicians in Berlin, Brussels and Washington who are calling for Turkey's EU membership. "If Ankara threatens to march into Iraq and battle the Kurds, the brutal realities of the Middle East will come to Europe like a bull at the gate."If? It is and has been happening. From Kurdish sites I have seen reports of Turkish tanks on Iraqi soil.
Namik Tan speaks diplomatically:
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'It is necessary to avoid statements and initiatives which risk to drag Iraq into an undesired anarchy, instability and internal clash,'' said Foreign Ministry Spokesman Namik Tan on Friday.I think Turkey is trying to prevent the development of a Kurd-dominated military force in the north, or any strong Kurdish regional government. Kirkuk and Mosul are also critical for control of Iraq's northern oil fields. Here is a small map of this area. Here is a brief overview of the oil situation. The largest pipeline out of the country goes to Turkey.
When a reporter asked about participation of Iraqi Turkmens in Iraqi elections and Kirkuk, Tan said, ''Iraqi Turkmen community, which suffered throughout their history, decided to participate in the (Iraqi) elections behaving responsibly. But they are also asking for their legitimate rights.''
