MaxedOutMama
Monday, January 31, 2005
Flashpoint Turkey
Turkey's Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul sent a message to Rice congratulating her and expressing eagerness to work with her:
Now may be the time that Rice can broker a partnership between the Kurds, Allawi, and Turkey. The problem is the military faction; it does not seem able to accept the idea of Kurds in geographical control of the northern Iraqi oilfields. Turkey has also been pushing the idea that it is a force for stability in the Middle East and can assist in damping Palestinian/Israeli conflict.
This is going to be a wild ride.
''Joint interests of Turkey and the United States will gain more importance while a new period is starting in Afghanistan and Iraq. I am pleased as I will work with you,'' he added.Although Turkey is officially insisting that talks on EU membership are on course, and that they expect eventual full membership, it's clear that in practice they don't expect EU membership. In the linked sample article of the type of discussion going on, it's clear they are now seeking bargaining room. Talks appear to have been delayed another year:
Gul stressed in his message, ''we are expecting your visit to Turkey in coming days. Your visit will be a chance to discuss recent developments.''
EU Commissioner for Enlargement Olli Rehn said during last week’s Sacrifice Fest that the screening process would start in October and that this would last for one year, which means, EU membership talks will start in October 2006, that is, one year after the date given to Turkey. Meanwhile, the EU is putting pressure on Turkey to make a concession for a solution to the Cyprus issue until October this year. I believe the EU will corner Turkey’s EU membership, but it also doesn’t want to exclude Turkey completely.and:
Both First Army Commander Gen. Yasar Buyuanit and Deputy Chief of General Staff Gen. Ilker Basbug stated that not a single Turkish soldier would be withdrawn from the island without a permanent peace and solution in Cyprus. Both commanders said the Cyprus issue shouldn’t be a hindrance before Turkey. Actually this message was for some politicians and businessmen who want Turkey’s EU membership at any cost. Firstly, we should understand that Cyprus is increasing Turkey’s geopolitical and geographical importance. Although I consider Turkey’s full EU membership a dream, Turkish-EU relations should continue for economic interests. On the other hand, the EU is putting pressure on us concerning our domestic and foreign security. We can manage these two issues together and this is called the art of diplomacy. The important thing is to know what you want and what you present to the other side. The cooperation and concession are two different things.The calls to Rice and the consistent statements in the last two weeks about the importance of US/Turkish relations are a signal that Turkey believes itself out of EU running. In another news brief:
Deputy Chief of General Staff Gen. Ilker Basbug yesterday briefed the press mostly about the Iraq issue, especially Kirkuk. Kirkuk will prepare a basis for conflicts in Iraq, regardless of the Kurdish autonomy in northern Iraq. Turkey will be an intervener this way or the other. However, it will also cause problems in Turkish-US relations. Yesterday Basbug spoke on these issues during the press briefing. Turkey left out the US’ requests for Incirlik headquarters due to the Kirkuk and PKK terrorist organization issues. Although Basbug didn’t speak on this issue yesterday, some people have been talking about it for a long time.And here's a recent editorial by Cuneyt Ulsever about Bush's inauguration, Bush II's Second Ascending To The Throne. (When reading "must have", substitute "should have".):
Turkish soldiers are located in Afghanistan on behalf of the UN. The US benefits from this situation the most. Basbug said that the reaction and separatism were important issues and that the fight against corruption would continue. The aim of the briefing was to determine Turkey’s stance concerning all sorts of developments following the elections to be held in Iraq on Sunday. Turkish politicians, media and people are making recommendations. During yesterday’s briefing, our concerns were mentioned clearly and the broad dimension of our relations with the US and the possibility of a civil war in Iraq following the elections were emphasized. In any case, important developments will occur next month and they will influence not only our region, but also the world politics.
In line with the principles of practical politics, I had argued that Turkey must actively participate into the US’ inevitable attack on Iraq. I still believe that Turkey must have approved the bill permitting the US troops’ deployment in the Incirlik base. I had stated that pursuing a passive policy in this war would be more harmful to our country than being an active party. As a matter of fact, the number of Turkish casualties in this war is more than the British ones, because we don’t have our soldiers there to protect our citizens.The author is arguing for an active partnership with the US, for a quid pro quo of course:
Turkey’s already in Iraq but its hands are tied.
I believe that the second term of Bush II will be more aggressive than ever. The US is aware of the fact that the European Union, Russia, China and even India are capable of turning the world’s balances upside down in the 21st century. Therefore, Washington is expected to attempt to monitor the energy resources directly.
The US won’t stop until it manages to establish administrations obeying its demands in our neighbors like Syria. This situation bothers me because we’ve chosen to watch the war!Internally, it might even be necessary for the survival of Erdogan's government to substitute a proposed and ballyhooed partnership with the US for the one with the EU. I don't think they are making these moves to put pressure on the EU. They believe they will never be allowed into the EU, and are searching for a way to prevent this from appearing a defeat. Instead of looking toward Europe their first instinct is to look toward a regional coalition with the US.
Now may be the time that Rice can broker a partnership between the Kurds, Allawi, and Turkey. The problem is the military faction; it does not seem able to accept the idea of Kurds in geographical control of the northern Iraqi oilfields. Turkey has also been pushing the idea that it is a force for stability in the Middle East and can assist in damping Palestinian/Israeli conflict.
This is going to be a wild ride.
