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Thursday, March 24, 2005

And now Cambodia

Recombinomics reports three bird flu deaths in Cambodia, associated with reports of dead poultry:
The victim described above is the third reported bird flu death in Kampot, Cambodia. The first two formed a familial cluster. The index case died after collecting dead birds and his sister developed symptoms shortly after his funeral. Although there had been dead poultry in the village, they were not reported and follow-up tests failed to detect H5N1 in poultry or family members.

However, the latest case is from Tam Sasor, which is just 20 km from the home of the familial cluster. There are reports of dead poultry in the area as well as reports of villagers eating the dead poultry.
If the virus is spreading rapidly among birds there seems little chance of controlling it. I'm sure it's able to infect wild birds as well. Only a couple of years ago, every bird in my area smaller than a goose died from West Nile. There were dead birds everywhere. Normally, every day I see hundreds of wild birds around my home. Hundreds.

When my youngest dog heard bird song she was very startled - she did not know what it was. If wild birds spread the bird flu to the US it will probably shift into a very infectious form initially (faster spreading forms win out). Is it hubris to hope that this happens quickly, before the virus becomes more efficient at human to human transmission? Once a wild reservoir is saturated these viruses tend to shift to a more chronic form.

Still, if the virus hits our area and proves lethal to most birds, I think many smaller species might be wiped out. I have never seen any epidemic in an animal population produce such devastating effects as West Nile.


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