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Thursday, May 26, 2005

TAANSTAAFL In Europe

By now it is pretty clear that the proposed EU constitution will get nay votes from France (Sunday) and The Netherlands (Friday 6/3). The question is why.

Dale Franks at QandO posted on the discontent spawning this development. He quotes Anatole Kaletsky:
The people of France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands may be angry about globalisation or ultra-liberalism or immigration, but this reflects a deeper malaise. Their living standards are falling, their pensions are in danger, their children are jobless and their national pride is turning into embarrassment and even shame.
Exactly. As Dale notes:
Now, the Europeans whom I've spoken with almost invariably declare that they don't want to live in a country like the US, where you have to work long and hard, where you can be fired at will, and where there are no generous social benefits. Well, OK, that's a perfectly legitimate argument. But the corollary to that argument is that, if that's the kind of labor and business environment you want, then you don't get to complain that it entails a structural unemployment rate of 10% and a GDP growth rate of 1.5% per year.
For an in-depth review of one such country, see No Oil For Pacifist's very substantive analysis of Sweden, which is actually doing very well by European standards. By American standards it is in trouble. Right now, the socialist countries of Europe still offer a social security that the US does not. However this is due to change rapidly as each country tries to implement reforms to improve growth or runs head-on into demographic economic disaster. Schroeder has tried to reform in Germany and it looks like his party is due to lose the chancellorship.

As I have discussed before, the countries in Europe are splitting along lines of their economic philosophies. Ireland has experienced great success with its "liberalization" campaign (that's free-market reform in Euro-speak), the UK Thatcherite reforms have set the UK on a healthier economic path, and the east seems to have embraced a flat-tax high-growth economic philosophy. See here for a discussion of the tax trends. For a rather philosophical look at human nature and capitalism, see Dr Sanity on Biological Fantasies.

And finally, it's foolish to somehow believe we can draw a bright line between the trends in Europe and the US. The differences are a matter of degree. We will face very similar demographically induced economic challenges within the next ten years. See this post about Greenspan's testimony. How we will resolve them has not been settled. In Europe, we see a preview of our future. Which will it be? Ireland, or France?


Comments:
Great, and inspiring, link-filled (thank you, thank you!) post. However, I think you added an extra "A."
 
the States has a bit of a higher defense budget than Sweden et al., I reckon the social security fears are a smokescreen for horrifically high taxes being wasted on EU programs such as the Common Agricultural Policy

hm, theres my 2cents:)
 
Rachel - I'm certainly not qualified to discuss the EU's Common Agricultural Policy. (I keep reading dark mutterings about reform, much like the services directive.) But demographically speaking, great swathes of the EU do have a problem. Germany's Otto Schily is freaking out about it. Whether it's the US or the EU, when you get less than 2.5 workers supporting each retiree you seem to be crossing a line into disaster.

Carl - "There ain't no such thing as a free lunch", I think. And then I look it up and people claim there's an extra a in there. "There ain't any dyslexic who can spell TANSTAAFL" - TAADWCST.
 
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