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Tuesday, May 31, 2005

West Nile Is Back

This map is maintained by the USGS. It is a listing of places in which West Nile has been reported in "sentinel" species (non-human, generally birds or horses) in 2005. In general these species will test positive before the first human cases are confirmed. The map is updated constantly, so you might want to check it every week. Right now it is only a few southern states, such as Florida that are reporting. This will change rapidly.

This map is of bird cases. The pink splotches are confirmed by tests, and the blue splotches are samples submitted for testing. Notice that this map shows more and different areas with activity in 2005.

This map is of human cases in 2005. Right now there are no confirmed human cases for 2005. This too will change rapidly. There is a vaccine for horses. There is none for humans, so the only way to avoid getting West Nile is by avoiding mosquitoes. And you should be careful. The cases which are being reported show a lot of neurological West Nile cases. Some people have become so paralyzed they couldn't even breath; others experience devastating neurological damage and for some there is lasting impairment. These severe cases are showing up in young and healthy people as well as older people.

This chart is the CDC's 2004 case chart. It only includes cases confirmed through lab testing, and the CDC does not require notification of non-neurological cases of West Nile, so there is probably a severe undercount in the total cases. Notice the very high numbers of neurologically involved cases vs. absolute cases. For example:

Arizona: Total human cases, 391; Total neurological cases, 129
Georgia: Total human cases, 19; Total neurological cases, 12
Texas: Total human cases, 158; Total neurological cases, 114

Regardless, you shouldn't take this lightly. Mothers should absolutely make sure their kids use mosquito repellent. This is a rare disease that can kill you or completely alter your entire life. The only state that did not report West Nile in 2004 was Washington. It seems likely that cases will be reported there this year. From the CDC:



Comments:
WNV is a public health issue. We need to deal with it as such. Behavior can make a difference, so we need to push that.

Then agains, certain lobbying groups may be against that idea- they might not want their behavior to come underscrutiny, even if behavoir might mitigate a health crisis.
 
Sadly, behavior is the only thing that can make a difference. The only thing. There is no vaccine and no effective treatment for humans. Tom Carter has a really sad story of his sister's horse dying from West Nile.

I don't think the media is letting people know about what this disease is doing to young people. It will always be with us now - it is solidly in the environment.

I have never seen any disease that so devastated the bird population. For a year here, no bird song was heard. None. They were all dead. Bird carcasses everywhere. Admittedly, this is a swampy area, but people should realize the dangers of this disease. If you are healthy and limit your exposure to mosquitoes, probably sooner or later you will get a light exposure and survive, hopefully gaining immunity. But if you get a high dose or infected when you are immunologically vulnerable, the consequences could be death or permanent disability.
 
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