MaxedOutMama
Tuesday, July 26, 2005
The Chinese Connection
Courtesy Oraculations, this is an interesting Ynetnews article about the Mossad's conclusion that the explosive used in the 7/7 attack was likely the same as that used in the Mikes Place bombing in Tel Aviv last year and that it came from China (who has denied this). Read the whole Ynetnews article.
Howard writes:
Also I suggest reading Oraculation's speculations on the nature of the WOT.
And just in case you actually read the DU thread, and get far enough to read the apocalypse now quote attributed to Julian Robertson, Mover Mike has debunked it.
Howard writes:
...phony baloney stories abound regarding a chemical mastermind. EU papers are reporting once again that the explosive used was a highly sophisticated Chineses military type used to blow up Mikes Place in Tel Aviv last year. Don't know why the western press is cooling this one.I would say that the American and British press are relying on official statements, and that the UK doesn't want to publicize any connection with the Mossad. I mean, it's bad enough that DU's first assumption was that the CIA, MI5 or the Mossad did it (although now they've got it all figured out). However, if it was the type of explosive the Mossad describes it should have blown up the second attempt, I think. Not that I'm any expert on explosives.
Also I suggest reading Oraculation's speculations on the nature of the WOT.
And just in case you actually read the DU thread, and get far enough to read the apocalypse now quote attributed to Julian Robertson, Mover Mike has debunked it.
Comments:
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Just read the DU thread and there 2 safe conclusions.
Their parents ought to get their money back from the educational system, and second, there needs to be better access to mental heath.
For God's sake, these people are going to be parents some day.
Their parents ought to get their money back from the educational system, and second, there needs to be better access to mental heath.
For God's sake, these people are going to be parents some day.
RE bubble bursting at the same time the population is expanding isn't that much of a threat. NY, LA, Frisco, Monterey-Carmel-Pebble Beach, and other watering spots for the super rich many not drop at all because foreigners are the ones buying up the property, especially in desireable places like Pebble Beach and Santa Fe. There is plenty of money chasing too few products in housing.
Minh-Duc: LOL!!!! But I agree. I think the leadership of the Democratic party has become ineffective and detached from its broader base.
Howard: Yes, that's a very good point. However demand alone doesn't give you the equation. It's more like a three variable equation relating demand, affordability and desireability.
Furthermore, there is ample evidence in some areas that a great many properties have been bought by investors and a great many properties have been bought on a speculative basis. These are no-money-down, interest-only or negative amortization loans. A lesser class of risky mortages are ARMs, because it's very possible that people may not be able to afford the next rate adjustment if interest rates rise significantly.
Once the proportion of investor-held homes plus speculatively purchased homes in a particular area rises above 15% you can start expecting fall-out. Once it rises above 20% it becomes a near certainty. Once it rises above 30%, if you are vulnerable you sell ASAP.
The recent trends in several different hot markets show that demand may be there, but affordability is the problem. Lower-end properties are being snapped up, but higher-end properties are lagging. Now if long-term interest rates were to rise significantly, that would greatly accelerate the trend.
Many people believe that floating the Chinese currency will mean that long-term US interest rates must now increase. If that is so, real estate is due to depreciate because of a sharp decrease in affordability and therefore a sharp decrease in domestic demand. The second-home numbers and the population demographics aren't reassuring either.
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Howard: Yes, that's a very good point. However demand alone doesn't give you the equation. It's more like a three variable equation relating demand, affordability and desireability.
Furthermore, there is ample evidence in some areas that a great many properties have been bought by investors and a great many properties have been bought on a speculative basis. These are no-money-down, interest-only or negative amortization loans. A lesser class of risky mortages are ARMs, because it's very possible that people may not be able to afford the next rate adjustment if interest rates rise significantly.
Once the proportion of investor-held homes plus speculatively purchased homes in a particular area rises above 15% you can start expecting fall-out. Once it rises above 20% it becomes a near certainty. Once it rises above 30%, if you are vulnerable you sell ASAP.
The recent trends in several different hot markets show that demand may be there, but affordability is the problem. Lower-end properties are being snapped up, but higher-end properties are lagging. Now if long-term interest rates were to rise significantly, that would greatly accelerate the trend.
Many people believe that floating the Chinese currency will mean that long-term US interest rates must now increase. If that is so, real estate is due to depreciate because of a sharp decrease in affordability and therefore a sharp decrease in domestic demand. The second-home numbers and the population demographics aren't reassuring either.
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