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Monday, August 28, 2006

Oracularly Speaking

Howard on the Fed's Sacrifice Ratio. Read it.

The real flipping problem with housing is that the median household income in this country has been dropping for years. Stomping on the little guy isn't exactly going to improve the situation. Stopping unfair competition from under-the-counter illegals would help. Building power plants and drilling our own oil would help. The Fed's idea will hurt the economy instead of helping it.

Dear Mama; Real Median Household Income rose by 1.1% between 2004 and 2005 from $45,817 to $46,326. On balance it looks unchanged between 2000 and 2005 (I'm looking at a graph). I can email you the chart if I had an email address for you.
Not only has real median household income risen, but also family net worth, too.
Inflation adjusted fell from 2000-2004. 2005 numbers just came out. You are quoting from page 11 of the CPS survey, which notes that overall real median rose by 1.1, and in the NE by 2.9%, and in the West by 1.5%, which means that in the South and Midwest it dropped. However, because the inflation number is understated, this is not an accurate picture of where we are now. They used a CPI of 3.3 for this data. Real inflation has been running very high this year.

Furthermore, between 2000 and 2004 inflation-adjusted median household income dropped.

More about this later, but the info is on pgs 29 & 30 of the CPS. An easier summary page which doesn't include 2005 yet is Meyer's Group's.

Fausta, family net worth will rise anytime you have an RE boom. Real median household income hasn't risen since 2000, if you adjust it for inflation and look over the whole period. Seriously. Compare 2000 - 2006 using the old inflation numbers, and no dice. It's falling, not rising, except in the NE.
I think this round goes to mama!
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