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Thursday, November 02, 2006

A New Maunder Minimum?

I am disgusted by politics, because I suspect neither party wants to deal with any of the important issues of our day, I deeply admire the American military, because as an institution it is trying to defend our nation's ability to deal with the important issues of the day, and along with Lincoln, I believe that only we can beat ourselves. We sure seem to be trying to do just that, though. As soon as we decide to deal with reality again, we will become unbeatable.

That having been said, I would like to bring your attention to the fact that it is cold. Mover Mike.

The oceans show rapid cooling (good news for Florida and the Gulf Coast). The paper is now available for free here, and as the authors write:
A likely source of the cooling is a small net imbalance in the 340 W/m2 of radiation that the Earth exchanges with space. Imbalances in the radiation budget of order 1 W/m2 have been shown to occur on these time scales and have been related to changes in upper OHCA [Wong et al., 2006]. These findings suggest that the observed decrease in upper ocean heat content from 2003 to 2005 could be the result of a net loss of heat from the Earth to space. Nevertheless, further work will be necessary to determine the exact cause of the cooling.
This particular finding agrees with upper-atmosphere findings pretty well. There are also some rather interesting findings produced by studies of the sun (NASA):
The Sun's Great Conveyor Belt has slowed to a record-low crawl, according to research by NASA solar physicist David Hathaway. "It's off the bottom of the charts," he says. "This has important repercussions for future solar activity."
"Normally, the conveyor belt moves about 1 meter per second—walking pace," says Hathaway. "That's how it has been since the late 19th century." In recent years, however, the belt has decelerated to 0.75 m/s in the north and 0.35 m/s in the south. "We've never seen speeds so low."

According to theory and observation, the speed of the belt foretells the intensity of sunspot activity ~20 years in the future.
Although this is heresy of the worst "climate science" sort, observed temperatures on earth still continue to correlate more to solar activity than to atmospheric composition (except for those short-term fluctuations produced by large volcanic eruptions). See graph from the above article:

If you will note that low from 1963-1975 and recall the great Ice Age frenzy of my youth, you may think various Mommish thoughts to yourself. Read about the implications for the IPCC's increasingly deranged approach to what should be a scientific question.

Although "climate scientists" have desperately tried to dispose of the historical records of recent climate fluctuations in the past 1000 years, they will not be able to change the future. As Roger Pielke notes, real science is apt to lose public credibility as a result. The IPCC's distortions of the underlying science have led it to make unsupportable claims and unsupportable predictions.

Let's hope the real scientists can save science. The truth is that very significant climate variations are a natural feature of our planet. We really cannot afford not to study the climate system. Eventually we will crack the code, and then we'll be in a position to cope with it.

ed in texas

Add the possibility of a major sunspot cluster to the observed (and not widely reported) decrease in the earth's magnetic flux density and you have the recipe for an unpleasant event, to say the least.
Yes. And it brings up interesting questions about past climactic events too. Have you seen the stalagmite studies?
Mr. Max, are you acquainted with Cotterel's book "The Mayan Prophecies"? It may sound crazy, but some of the so-called "prophecies" deals exactly with that, say, misbehaviour of the Sun, and the epoch is correct too (well, the mayans were excellent timekeepers, I'm not surprised anyway). It makes sense to you?
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