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Thursday, November 02, 2006

You Know That Little Valour-IT Thing?

Update: This is a totally legit project of Soldiers Angels, which is a 501(c)(3) organization. If you register at Guidestar (free), you can look at copies of their tax returns. They don't pay salaries or expenses of their officers and they have no employees or signficant assets. The organization is registered as Soldiers Angels, Pasadena, CA. End update.

That little Valour-IT thingie connects to a program that buys voice-activated laptops for troops who are in the hospital recuperating from their injuries, and who are not able to operate a regular laptop. There's a button on the left with "Donation" on it. Click on it. Donate. What you give will be used either to buy a PC and software, or to ship a PC and software.

Don't give out of pity. They will use these PC's to get themselves out of there.

Believe me, I know. I was once a literal drooler. I remember hanging out, and a thought emerging. "Gee, that's drool running down my face." Back down into fog. Emerge again. Progress. Indignation! "People shouldn't have drool running down their faces!" For a while, I couldn't do anything about it, but eventually I did. There are times when things just have to get better. Anything I can do they can do, and most of them are in much better shape than that. Computers were very important for my recovery, and they will be a big asset for theirs.

Cough up, please. One of the nicest things about not being a drooler any more is that I can help. I know you might be worried about things, but as a reformed drooler, believe me, I can guarantee that whatever you're worried about, it's probably not as bad as you think it is.

Morning Mama; Before I cut these guys a check, are you certain they are legit?

See the payroll number?

Yes. Valour-IT is a project of Soldiers Angels, which is a 501c(3) organization. IRS Search here as:
Soldiers angels, Pasadena, CA.

You can register free at Guidestar to get their tax returns, which I have downloaded and looked at. The organization pays no salaries or anything like that; the expenses are for materials, the necessary legal/accounting stuff, and postage and shipping. Tremendous ROI for donors.

Basically, this is a military type operation; give 'em four sticks and a ball of string and they build a fort.
http://www.guidestar.org/ is that search address.
Yes, I did see the payroll. Given the huge adjustment for September, my guess is that we should see an upward adjustment for October too once the state UI numbers come in. The same trend just keeps on.

The huge difference between numbers has to be because of employment in small businesses; I wonder if we aren't seeing an unquantifiable strength in the economy. It could be partly demographics as well; a lot of older workers end up officially outsourced but start their own businesses. It's a very, very significant trend.

I'm a little confused as to why so many people think a rate cut is coming so soon (unless I misunderstand the bond numbers), because I don't necessarily see it. If mortgage rates stay down, I think they may end up raising.

I don't think the construction employment figures will show much until March. On the other hand, the off-book nature of a lot of that employment may mean that we're not seeing a lot of it. Those numbers don't match what I am seeing and hearing.
Afternoon, Mama. Yes, the Euro curve is pricing in some eases by the Fed. That's even after the 20 basis point backup today. Our thought about that pricing is that the market seems to feel housing was soft enough, and inflation tame enough to allow the Fed to ease. That's an explination, not our view. It's unusual to see the back euro's so inverted with where the front couple of contracts are.

The payroll numbers are a crazy series. We'll look back a couple of yraes from now to see the data was off by a couple of million. Feels like a roll of the dice over here.
Groping in the dark!

Something's changed, but we don't know what it is. There is a level of consistency in these inconsistencies that confirms that at least one unknown factor is influencing these numbers.

I have been wondering for a while if a lot of the Euros aren't flat crazy, based on the trades they seem to be making. On the other hand, they seem to count on government pitching in, so perhaps that changes the equation.

I saw the bonds easing, so I guess people were expecting a rate drop. They seem to be making significant bets.

The ISM service number was very strong. Somewhere, somehow, there is a significant infusion of either liquidity or unfounded optimism into this economy.

We won't have the data for a while, but the thing to check is business registrations at the state level, I think. It's at least a possibility that the plan Bs might be kicking in by the millions.
Thanks on behalf of the soldiers! You're a great guy. Emailing.
CF, I am going to delete your comment so that you don't get spammed!
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