Monday, June 04, 2007
April Factory Orders
The YoY figures contained in the full report are troubling.
- All manufacturing shipments are down 1.1%.
- Including unfilled orders, they are up 2.0%,
- New orders are down 0.6%,
- Inventories are up 4.7%,
- Including unfilled orders, they are up 8%.
Finished goods for durables are up 5.9% YoY. When I look at these numbers, I think that many industries are going to see a slowdown shortly unless shipments pick up in May.
If this seems like Greek, try Gene Sperling's column.
Aggh: I forgot the most important part. Comparing YTD 2007 to 2006, the value of petroleum and coal product shipments is down 8.7%.
Somehow I doubt we went green that fast. It is true that building is high energy, but so is farming, which is up strongly (shipments of ag chemicals up 11.9% YTD compared to 2006 YTD) now that we decided to burn corn. Manufacturing is high energy. We had some cold winter months, which pushed utility production up. It's hard to see how petroleum and coal shipments can be down that much. To my mind, there are only two possible answers. The first is that the sampling procedure (this report comes from a sampling of companies) is such that it is overstating production. The second is that the sampling procedure is such that energy shipments are being understated. That is unlikely, because energy is dominated by large companies.
Do you have a source or link for this data?
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