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Monday, October 01, 2007

Yep, I'm Alive

Just working very hard. Some graphs for you to contemplate.

Trucking, through August:

Commercial Paper Outstanding from FRB:

NACM through September (read about NACM here):

Service generally follows manufacturing with a lag, but you can often get a better fit with a lagged three month average.

The trucking shows you what is happening, and the NACM and the Commercial Paper Outstanding shows you what that trucking graph is going to look like. If you look at the trucking graph for the last year, you can tell there is a correlation to these numbers. NACM is B2B credit, and more of a targeted measurement than the FRB's Commercial Paper Outstanding.

A few more graphs from Illusion of Prosperity. Port cargo traffic:

And industrial retail electricity sales:

Hey, that's okay, the consumer is going to save us, right?
Last but not least, consumer credit adjusted by CPI:

In case you are not getting it, here's a constant dollar graph of CPI-adjusted wages from this June post of mine:

The graph covers constant dollar wages from Q12000 through Q12007. Consumers are carrying a lot more debt in comparison to earnings. But employment is great, right? Conference Board Help Wanted Index:

Railroad quarterly yon-miles:


Next Q3 Oct 31st.
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