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Monday, November 12, 2007

Just Pure UGLY!

Wow. That is ugly all the way through. I noticed Legg Mason when I was searching Edgar on some of those funny-money MBS, so I'm not surprised it's having to inject capital.

All the major indices were down. Dow below 13,000, S&P 500 below 1500. Oil sold off, gold sold off, and most commodities sold off. S&P Energy Index lost 3.76%. Google off 4.8%. Cry me a river.

When your top gainer is a construction company that filed for bankruptcy, you can safely say that it was a bad day. Look at that list. Look at ACA. Will it default? It seems more than possible. Ah, the sweet smell of equity burning in the fall....

So now we come into a joyous evening, hoping that the Nikkei, which flirted with 15,000 last night, doesn't tonight drop the 200 needed to take it below 15,000. It looks like the carry trades are unwinding.

At this point, it's not some PPT that's needed. It's Paul Bunyan.

Dollar gained, though.

Update: Nikkei lost a bit, but held above 15,000. This article on money markets is very good. We are at the point where multiple institutions are having to backstop some of their investments to prevent overt losses. As the downgrades continue, I assume the number of institutions will grow.

I pop the popcorn when the DOW drops below 12,000. Yea I've been waiting for the 'great unraveling' since '01 and it seemed that capital just seemed to come from new and unexpected places to fuel the RE bubble. So my criteria may be a bit odd, but based on my experience.

A bit OT from economic, but I'd suggest you take a look at http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2007/11/democratic-poli.html

My personal history is agnostic, so I am by nature a doubter and a searcher of truth. But the majority of folks are just trying to work, make babies, get housing and those babies into some kind of career. Searching for the truth does not fit into that schedule. I think I have been personally saved from financial ruin by the accident of an accounting degree that I got because I figured it would help me get a programming job.
Vader, that is very interesting. This struck me:
Americans are now awakening, as if from a bad dream. What we have learned from recent years' experience — what we should have known all along — is that the supremacy of critical thought in political discourse cannot be taken for granted. It can be ensured only by an electorate that respects reality and punishes politicians who lie or engage in other forms of deception.

I don't think democratic politics distorts truth more than any other type of politics. I think all human beings are prone to believe the pleasant truths.
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