Thursday, December 27, 2007
OMG, They Got Bhutto
A very brave woman is dead. This is a tragedy on so many levels.
I wish some of the people who rant about there being no moderate Muslims would pause for a moment to reflect that there are, and that many of them have shown incredible courage in bucking the trend to speak for reason and hope in their own countries. There are many Muslim martyrs to reason, and to refuse to recognize that is an insult to humanity and reason itself.
It's hard to see how a civil war won't result. What a disaster.
# posted by Blogger MaxedOutMama : 7:47 AM
I've always thought that our next war would be in Pakistan and not in Iran. Iran might have nukes someday, Pakistan has them now. And its the real home to the Taliban.
'Nuclear Taliban' - if that headline doesn't grab the political spotlight I have no idea what will.
This is very disappointing news but so utterly predictable - it is like watching water run down hill.
Yes, the radical Moslems are a step closer to having nukes.
My next big war bets are in Asia. Now sure if we will be much more than minor actors though. My bets are Pakistan vs India or India vs China. Or all three are drawn in.
Difficult to wage war when you are financially bankrupt and in the midst of a political sea changed to boot. On major development was a Chinese sub that allegedly surface in the middle of a carrier task force undetected. Not to mention the financial chaos that China can cause.
Here is an interesting blog
Also check out
Under cover of "law", lawless acts may be done.
It's an unmitigated disaster for the people of Pakistan, that is clear. And it certainly destabilizes the region further.
It's not good news for Lebanon, which is undergoing another round of assassinations there.
Vader's right - a step into chaos is about the most optimistic characterization. I very much fear that Headless is correct about the next step.
The last thing we need in this part of the world is a civil war.
Dryfly, I suspect we'll have to wait in line if it all goes ugly. The Indian's will be there first.
The way Hitler came to power was not legal. The Enabling Act was passed only because he arrested a bunch of Reichstag deputies. In the run up to his appointment as Chancellor, there was street fighting and a grab of police and state power in Prussia by the Nazis. There was no mystery at the time about what was happening, and the idea of a preventive war was almost immediately discussed. Before Hitler ever became Chancellor the Nazis were already killing people, and they could not have accomplished the passage of the Enabling Act without having that police power. The list of Reichstag deputies of the time who were killed or in prison for a long time is devastating. Jews were already being killed, etc, even before the power grab.
The preventive war would have been utterly legal and it didn't happen and the reason it didn't was largely that the civilized countries were overwhelmed. They preferred to look the other way. A more costly mistake has rarely been made in world history.
Just as none of the ASEAN countries will intervene in Burma, I very much fear that no coalition of countries in the East will be able to deal with a Pakistan and an Iran out of control.
Its a little different going into Burma or Pakistan than re-occupying the Rhineland. Re-taking the Rhineland isn't a lot tougher than re-taking NJ... The mountainous regions of Pakistan aren't even controlled by Pakistan... same for the Golden Triangle area of Burma.
The hardest part for Americans to fathom is that there really isn't a lot we can do. I learned that in the early 80s when my roommate for three years was Turkish and he described what went on in the mountains of Eastern Turkey - no one, not Ankera, not the PKK, not even the drug rings completely controlled that area. Central Asia hasn't changed all that much since the days of the silk road.
Pearl Harbor was the only thing that united the US to fight a war and Germany was not part of it. Roosevelt would have had a very hard time fighting the Japanese and declaring war on Germany. A lot of US businessmen were Nazi sympathizers.
The Countries of Europe and their allies had just fought a war where an entire generation of your men were slaughtered, where in the same trenches you could look out and identify when prior soldiers died by the equipment on the remains.
WW I bankrupted Britain and nearly France. It is no wonder that the risk aversion was so high.
Justified war is a slippery thing. It might have worked to prevent WWII, but that is not a known, just an assumption. Intervention against Germany, might have just brought a more radical leader a bit later. OTOH, the doctrine got us Iraq and a leadership that wants to take on the world.
An interesting analysis of Munich is here
-- Dying Centauri Emperor, Babylon-5
-- Vorlon Ambassador Kosh, Babylon-5
I'm not sure how this will play out with India. I suspect that they will take the territory they've been fighting over, if civil war breaks out in Pakistan. Could make it bad for all those companies with call centers in India ;)