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Friday, February 15, 2008

Well, This Is It

The monoline troubles are blowing up the bond auctions, Goldman's getting some suspicious scrutiny,

Once the monolines went, nothing could stop the financial confidence shell game from collapsing.

Once again the only strength in January G.17 was utilities. Commercial paper is taking the next securitization leg down - look at this week's drop:

Good nonfinancial rates are extremely low, so the Fed has done its job there. It's neither possible nor advisable for a central bank to seek to prevent risk recognition in markets.

2007 trade balance improved for once:

The imbalance was 758.5 billion for 2006 compared to 711.6 billion for 2007. Obviously we have a ways to go.

I still think the stability point on the Dow is between 11,200 and 11,800, but now I think between 11,400 and 11,800 is most likely. It's not that it couldn't go lower for a few months, but it will rebound if it does.

There is further fearful pain to come involving construction, commercial mortgages, credit card losses and auto debt. In Europe there are some tremendously dicey commercial loans that worry me as well as CRE in several countries. They have big helpings of pain ahead of them involving intra-European problems.


Comments:
M.O.M.,

Maybe that strength in utilities is related to the increased size of our houses. Just a hunch.

Sometimes more is less.
 
I think it's mostly the weather, because it varied a lot MoM.

But certainly those houses are expensive to heat!
 
Re; Goldman; I'm sure some brilliant trader at Goldman, who lives in Westport and leaves his house at 5:30 in the morning to drive to lower Manhattan, and eat's a Chef's salad every day for lunch, marched into lloyd's office and insisted upon selling the LCDX contract against all of Goldman's levered loans, and once again saved the day.

However, there's no Tier 3 asset index to short....
 
EXACTLY. They have to take the vertical hit now. It's gonna hurt.
 
The imbalance was 758.5 billion for 2006 compared to 711.6 billion for 2007. Obviously we have a ways to go.

LOL. Understatement of the year candidate...
 
Yes, understatement of the year.

Amer. fools better stop Chinese goods crap ships from unloading here.

Still see fools being permitted to buy Lexus etc. with no penalty tacked on. etc.

We can't take this much longer or ......



Smart Independent
 
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