Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Wow - Check Out The Exit Polls
CNN has the PA exit poll listing women as 58% of the voters and voters aged under 45 only 27% of the total. Since Clinton does better with women and older people.... Demographics matter to economics and politics! A lot!
Exit polls aren't necessarily incredibly reliable, though. According to the ACS, (demographics detail here), PA has a 5.0/4.6 female/male split in the over-18 population. Total population is about 12.4 million. 5.2 million aged over 44. 9.6 million over 18, so it's a 5.2/4.4 >44/<45 ratio. It is true that younger people vote less, especially in primaries, and it is also true that women vote more.
Only about 1.3 ~ 1.4 million of PA's population is black, so if Obama doesn't lose by 10% or so tonight, you can't claim that it is due to the black vote. CNN's exit stats give the black voters as about 15% of the total vote.
Unless Hillary can really bring home the bacon tonight, she has absolutely no argument against Obama. She might as well just fold up her tent and steal away in the night.
Even India newspaper is covering this (probably ironically).
NY Sun has a follow up article (based on Reuters article.)
Food problems won't go away anytime soon, I think. Oil, if you ask me, is least of our worries...
It's going to blow up consumption or destabilize currencies across a number of poorer countries. People will literally starve.
You also may find WASDE useful. This comes from the USDA and it is an attempt to figure out world demand and supply for various crops. The next update should be May 9th and the current report is April 9th. Those two should give you a solid starting point.
The thing you have to keep in mind is that overall world demand and supply can remain relatively constant in the shorter term, yet sudden shortages can develop when countries abruptly change their food import/export policies due to internal political pressures arising from cost increases.
Rice is particularly sensitive because most of it has been grown by countries for their internal use.
For up to the minute information about rice specifically, try Oryza.
So it goes on, a close horse race.
I expect the "uncommitted superdelegates" are getting phone calls where a familiar voice reads their FBI files to them in an aw-shucks Arkansas accent; nobody can be allowed to stand between Hillary and The One Ring...
And it's really sad that I heard the Obama call talking about how they'd won places like New Mexico. So far, he has not been able to put away any of the big states. I think a few of the superdelegates may start to have second thoughts about how electable Obama is.
The same blog was also quoting the Book of Revelation and witnessing for Ron Paul as My Personal LORD and Savior, so I'm not 100% sure of their credibility.
"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro."
-- Hunter S Thompson
Disagree vehemently with your evaluation re Hillary & Obama.
Neophytes and others may not know as I do that: she has double to triple the number of electoral votes it would take!
Besides, the media covered up entirely re Obama's associations and continued for years associations with: Wright,
black panthers who said they would have blown up more cop cars & building if could ( even on 9/11),
and his association with outright defense of racist so-called college profs., as well as being for illegals regardless of effects on this country (and the fact the Mexico's very wealthy upper and wealthy middle classes strategized to dumpo all their low levels on to U.S. and continue to do so) effects on this country, etc. etc. etc. etc.
Best regards and ciao,
Do not involve in pol. discussions
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