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Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Wow - Check Out The Exit Polls

I figured Clinton would win PA about 6-8%, but boy, if the age and sex splits on the exit polls are right, she should have won by way more than that.

CNN has the PA exit poll listing women as 58% of the voters and voters aged under 45 only 27% of the total. Since Clinton does better with women and older people.... Demographics matter to economics and politics! A lot!

Exit polls aren't necessarily incredibly reliable, though. According to the ACS, (demographics detail here), PA has a 5.0/4.6 female/male split in the over-18 population. Total population is about 12.4 million. 5.2 million aged over 44. 9.6 million over 18, so it's a 5.2/4.4 >44/<45 ratio. It is true that younger people vote less, especially in primaries, and it is also true that women vote more.

Only about 1.3 ~ 1.4 million of PA's population is black, so if Obama doesn't lose by 10% or so tonight, you can't claim that it is due to the black vote. CNN's exit stats give the black voters as about 15% of the total vote.

Unless Hillary can really bring home the bacon tonight, she has absolutely no argument against Obama. She might as well just fold up her tent and steal away in the night.

OT: I've seen the Costco rationing story in ABC (or was that NBC?) last night as well as at CNBC this morning.

Even India newspaper is covering this (probably ironically).

NY Sun has a follow up article (based on Reuters article.)

Food problems won't go away anytime soon, I think. Oil, if you ask me, is least of our worries...
There is not a shortage of rice or other items in the US. The price has risen, of course, but there is not an actual shortage. The problem is for the people who can't afford to compete with US consumers who can pay $30 for a bag of rice.

It's going to blow up consumption or destabilize currencies across a number of poorer countries. People will literally starve.
Does anyone know where I can get the statistics for countries and how much food they import? Im writing a paper for my economics class.
The World Bank. Start with this paper. It was published Jan 2008, so it is a good starting point. However remember that the world food situation is breaking rapidly as countries respond to internal inflation by limiting exports, removing subsidies, imposing export taxes, and the like. You can write a paper giving cost numbers one month and have it be outmoded the next month.

You also may find WASDE useful. This comes from the USDA and it is an attempt to figure out world demand and supply for various crops. The next update should be May 9th and the current report is April 9th. Those two should give you a solid starting point.

The thing you have to keep in mind is that overall world demand and supply can remain relatively constant in the shorter term, yet sudden shortages can develop when countries abruptly change their food import/export policies due to internal political pressures arising from cost increases.

Rice is particularly sensitive because most of it has been grown by countries for their internal use.

For up to the minute information about rice specifically, try Oryza.
According to morning drive-time radio, the PA results came out to 55% Hillary, 45% Obama. Hill closed the delegate gap a little, but Obama is still ahead. Next is Indiana and North Carolina; NC is expected to be a big Obama win and "Indiana isn't Pennsylvania".

So it goes on, a close horse race.

I expect the "uncommitted superdelegates" are getting phone calls where a familiar voice reads their FBI files to them in an aw-shucks Arkansas accent; nobody can be allowed to stand between Hillary and The One Ring...
I was really surprised at PA. Last time I'd checked during the day, they expected Hilary 53%, Obama 47%. I checked it at 8 pm and found out it was a 10% difference. I've read that, if they did not split the delegates in such an odd way, she'd be ahead.

And it's really sad that I heard the Obama call talking about how they'd won places like New Mexico. So far, he has not been able to put away any of the big states. I think a few of the superdelegates may start to have second thoughts about how electable Obama is.
I think the 10% margin keeps her in. I would guess she'd have to do pretty well in all the remaining contests to even have a chance at the convention.
A blog called "Housing Fear" was talking about Third World farmers standing guard over their rice fields with AK-47s.

The same blog was also quoting the Book of Revelation and witnessing for Ron Paul as My Personal LORD and Savior, so I'm not 100% sure of their credibility.

"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro."
-- Hunter S Thompson
Couldn't get through before to comment.

Disagree vehemently with your evaluation re Hillary & Obama.

Neophytes and others may not know as I do that: she has double to triple the number of electoral votes it would take!

Besides, the media covered up entirely re Obama's associations and continued for years associations with: Wright,
black panthers who said they would have blown up more cop cars & building if could ( even on 9/11),
and his association with outright defense of racist so-called college profs., as well as being for illegals regardless of effects on this country (and the fact the Mexico's very wealthy upper and wealthy middle classes strategized to dumpo all their low levels on to U.S. and continue to do so) effects on this country, etc. etc. etc. etc.

Best regards and ciao,
Do not involve in pol. discussions
with non-independents.

smart independent
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