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Thursday, May 08, 2008

Unemployment Not Too Bad

NSA continuing claims have been dropping for three weeks, and SA initial and continuing claims dropped this last week. SA insured employment has risen to 2.3%, but NSA holds steady at 2.2%. The levels are still consonant with a recession but not with a deepening recession.

Undoubtedly the larger proportion of older workers is helping a bit - as people retire it lessens unemployment. Also all the anecdotes about illegal workers leaving (which are backed up by some real data) are probably helping the numbers.

Adding one to the illegal alien leaving ancedotes, I've noticed around here (Portland Oregon) there are a lot more white men doing menial jobs than ever before in the last 4 or 5 years.

The lawn crews around the business park are 50/50 white/latino previously there was one 1 white guy among the 3 crews that worked the area. The new Subway sandwich that opened in the new strip back at beginning of March has 1 latino and 3 or 4 20-something guys. The window washers which just came through today were all white vs. all latino last year.

Little bits here and there which I think add up to better than expected for a recession employment numbers.
Yeah, you're right. It's happening all over the country. Probably -2 million out of the workforce? A lot of it is enhanced enforcement.
roughly 2 million and counting

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