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Thursday, October 23, 2008

Bogosity

I've had it with bogosity, which is a word I just coined, meaning "the state of admiration and elevation of all that is bogus". This election is bogus, most of the economic analysis is bogus, a great deal of current business planning is bogus. The sea of bogosity threatens to overwhelm us all. ( I stand corrected by NJCommuter, who kindly contributes a link to etymology and usage of bogosity )

I apologize for my sparse blogging. I'm tired. Unbelievably tired. I think I'm going back to bed, and I'll just let others work on the bogosity problem for a bit. Here's what's driving Kasriel nearly nuts. I am pleased to see that I have companions in my wrath.

I'll tell you what's so insane about this election. First, neither candidate is addressing the real US problem, which are policies that have driven the bottom 60% of the US income pyramid into financial difficulty. The 80-90% segment of the pyramid is a derivative of the bottom 60%. The 90-95% segment is a derivative of the 80-90%. The 60-80% plus the 95-100% wedges are too little to carry the rest. What we need to do is subsidize the bottom 5-15%, take some of the tax load off the 15-30%, and increase taxation on the 80% - 100%. The best way to stimulate the middle is to spark corporate growth, which can best be done by going to a moderate flat tax on corporations. I'd suggest 18%.

Those destructive policies are policies of energy starvation, which destroys economies, and industrial starvation, which destroys economies, and a regressive taxation policy which increases the relative load on the bottom of the pyramid. Second, neither candidate is willing to really address the future compounding of our current problems, which is the coming retirement boom. Third, neither candidate is willing to address the nearly global changes in the business climate, which have combined to decrease US ability to compete. Fourth, both candidates advocate a carbon cap and trade policy which would be economic suicide if applied mainly to the US, and global economic suicide if applied fairly.

The bozo election will not end well. It is true that Obama is worse, because McCain's energy policy is a lot more realistic.

I strongly recommend reading Kasriel's daily global commentaries for the 14th through the 22nd. On top of all this, eastern Europe is now folding, and consumers in South America are collapsing. This forecasts an Asian export crisis. I now have overcapacity in the following sectors:
Almost all metals and alloys,
Almost all building supplies,
Pharmaceuticals,
Consumer electronics,
Knick-knackery (consumer thingies such as ceramic figures, ribbons, candles, etc)
Furniture,
Lumber,
Vehicles,
IT,
Oilseeds,
Cotton.

The problem here is an oversupply of debt. China is now trying to stoke a Greenspanish bubble, and it will almost certainly fail. The eastern European/Central Asia collapse is going to take another huge whack out of European banks. Japan's situation is extremely serious - the collapse of the yen carry is forcing its currency up, which is going to destroy its export capacity. Yikes!

It's time to get serious.

Update:
I would like to add a link to this post at Chicago Boyz about some of the economic problems posed by recent policy suggestions. I received an email from a commenter calling himself a "libtard", saying that his politics and my politics are polar opposites, but that he is pleased to see my identification of the problem. Well, I do vote for a lot of Dems, if they are serious about the problems. Right now, I wish I didn't have to vote for McCain. I don't see that this election is getting us closer to solve our problems - it appears to be getting us further away. But the problems exist. They are real. They will not go away by themselves. We cannot save the world by starving poorer people, in our own country or elsewhere. The very idea that we don't have to worry about the economic welfare of most of our

I have brooded about this a lot, and I fear that when both parties combined to exclude third-party candidates from the presidential debates they created a situation in which millions upon millions of Americans can find their legitimate needs absolutely excluded from public mention. This is toxic.

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