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Monday, October 20, 2008

Chinese Q3 GDP 9%

This is a significantly higher dropoff than anticipated:
China's economy expanded 9% in the third quarter after growing 10.1% in the second, according to data released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics.
Citi Investment Research analyst Lan Xue forecast further declines in Chinese stocks, saying there was as a greater than 50% chance China would tip into deflation, excluding food prices, next year.
Home sales by volume plunged 55.5 percent and 38.5 percent in Beijing and Shanghai in the first eight months from a year earlier, according to the official Xinhua News Agency. The State Council said that it would increase the supply of low-cost housing and reduce property transaction fees.
Other measures include an attempt to set up margin trading, rate cuts, some lowering of export barriers, and accelerated government spending on infrastructure.

The economic relationship between Japan and China is becoming ever more important in this global downturn, and should help to further reduce tensions between the two countries. In the short term, however, Japan's weakening fundamentals will continue to hurt some Chinese exporters.

If I look at shipping stats and trends, the slowdown in China appears far worse than most financial analysts are indicating.

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