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Friday, January 30, 2009


Waiting, waiting, waiting.

Real GDP was reported as -0.5% (annualized) in Q3. Q4 coming up....

-3.8! My guess was -4.1%, so I was wrong. Full release.

Most interesting thing about this is Gross Private Domestic Investment (Q3 0.4%, Q4 -12.3%). Equipment and software -27.8%. From a 1.0% increase in Q4 07, this segment of GDP has followed a declining trajectory:

-.6 -5.0 -7.5 -27.8
That is most related to business spending. Nonresidential structures also tipped negative in Q4 at -1.8%.

PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) -3.5, compared to -3.8 in Q3. State and local government consumption and investment goes negative at -0.5, down from 1.3 in Q3.

More tomorrow - I have a runaround day ahead.

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