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Wednesday, February 04, 2009

The Floor Forming Domestically In Leading Vectors

Seriously, it is. Someone should explain this to Nancy Pelosi:

After that they should explain to her what constitutes stimulus and what would save those 500 million monthly job losses. Poor lady. She really isn't very bright. Her remarkable string of statements about public policy demonstrate that she may be good at herding representatives and gathering and distributing money, but she has not a single clue about the effects of the legislation she shepherds through. For any sort of quantitative analysis, she seems to operate on about a seven-year old's level, complete with a well-raised child of that age's normal sublime confidence in logic and a controllable world. Fossil fuel bad, natural gas good, thus natural gas is not a fossil fuel.

(Aside for any foreigner who happens upon this: The total population of the US is a shade over 300 million. The workforce is about 150 million. Thus Nancy just held a press conference and confidently asserted that more than three times the US workforce loses their jobs every month. Maybe that's why she believes that contraception funding will stimulate the economy?)

Proof of a stabilizing trend is in NACM's latest report. That is business to business credit, and I give it much more weight than ISM. Treasury numbers are firming up for some categories too. Much more later tonight or tomorrow because I've got to run.

So now we all get to sit around and play with the worry beads while we wait for the Euro implosion. If only we were contending with just our own stupidity (although as our Dear Leadress The Nancy demonstrates, that is an impressive heap of stupidity).

All bets are off. Germany is really hurting now. Everyone knew Spain was a goner (their own leaders are beginning to admit that their economy will shrink in 2009), but Germany's really taking a hit in employment right now.

The problem for the US is that the service side is being stabilized by a flattening downward vector in manufacturing, and as Europe gets weaker, US manufacturing should get weaker. So that would imply a later downward slide in services. That's why we need real stimulus now.

Crude inventories are way high. Crude stocks ex SPR is 17% higher than last year. Gasoline inventories are only 4.4% below last year's levels. Distillate is 9.9% higher than last year:
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased 7.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 346.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.3 million barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased last week while gasoline blending components inventories increased during this same time. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.4 million barrels, and are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased last week by 2.9 million barrels and are in the upper half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 1.4 million barrels last week and are above the upper limit of average range for this time of year.
Total product supplied over the last four weeks is down 2.8% compared to 2008, but usage appears to have dropped more than that.

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