Tuesday, May 26, 2009
And Nastier Yet
What an awful set of correlations. I feel like stabbing my eyes out with a rusty fork to stop the pain.
The worst of it is that I decided to check my sample sites (hoping that they were biased badly) against the Fed maps of bank card and mortgage delinquencies. They were biased on the high side. Shoot me! Just shoot me!
Next up I'll pull call reports, but this ain't looking good. The number of banks doomed to fail has to have risen to at least 500.
The remarkably dismal rail reports agree well with primary retail.
I have a number of really strong ways I know to measure economic potential over the next 16 months, but none of them come up positively.
So, more negative growth? How negative?
Part of the problem is rapidly worsening loan quality across all sectors. The chargeoff rates in general are harrowing.
However the government is meddling so much that any future projections have to be as dependent on assumptions about what the government does as much as the baseline economics.
I'm not saying that the government shouldn't try to intervene at all - just that choices the government is making are having a progressively bigger impact upon the real economy.
Links to this post: