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Monday, August 31, 2009

Long Post Late Tonight

In the meantime, take a look at the Chicago PMI report, and see if you see what I see.

Comments:
I see prices paid jumping at a time they should be falling.
 
My eye was drawn to the "General Comments from Members of the Survey Panel".

"Everyone thinks the economy is getting better, but it isn't."

That's something I've been thinking since 2004. ;)
 
I see data that is being presented in the best possible
light. Instead of realistic analysis, more spin.
 
We've hit the plateau. We go sideways until January and then fall again.
 
Commodities rising at a rate not consistent with demand.
 
Fraction reporting more new orders: Small, and actually declining since April.

Fraction reporting more employment: Also small, up only a little.

Fraction reporting larger inventories: Small.

Fraction reporting larger inventories: Large.

Fraction reporting higher production: Risen to 29% -- but 45% reporting no change.

Anecdotal reports, mostly unfavorable.

Looks like the bird is sliding along the runway after a very hard landing.
 
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