Thursday, September 10, 2009
Since 8/1, NSA; SA claims:
08/01: 466,695; 554,000Just a sideways pattern, really. Most often initial claims peak late in the game. I'm finding these reports puzzling, because they seem to indicate that seasonal patterns aren't holding? By next week all of the school systems across the country will have reopened, and it will be interesting to see the results for the rest of September.
08/08: 482,590; 561,000
08/15: 457,985; 580,000
08/22: 457,269; 574,000
08/29: 456,682; 576,000
09/05: 460,516; 550,000
The continued claims numbers keep dropping, but that seems to be split between finding jobs and people dropping off the rolls after benefits expire.
My belief is that hiring in some segments of retail is really picking up, but some segments of retail are also folding. I guess we will have to wait for another few months to see.
There's a lot about current data I find puzzling, and I could be wrong. With that caveat, my belief is that for the lower 25% of workers (based on average wages by industry), the economy has bottomed and is picking up across the majority of the US with the exception of the biggest housing boom areas and very rural areas. However, at the same time, wages and jobs in most higher-end employment are still declining across the majority of the US. That presents interesting bank challenges, since much more credit is outstanding on the higher end.
I feel another big bank bailout coming on.....
and workers who had their hours reduced to
squat are included in this number ? We are just digging a deeper hole. A reduction in the payroll tax is needed now to help stem the employment losses.
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