Monday, May 03, 2010
Mixed April US Tax Receipts
So how did we do on a year over year basis?
Mixed. That's all I can say. One thing concerning me was the FUT (Federal Unemployment Tax) receipts. FUT is not paid by government or most charity employees, so it is a measure of private sector strength.
April 30th MTD 2009 FUT: 3,605I call that a major fail. For quite some time this indicator was rising YoY, although it had started lagging long before we were officially declared in recession, it was the first indicator to really pick up. FUT is usually a strong future indicator. This month's contains more of a small business component. FUT is mostly a private employee counting function because it is charged by quarter on a very low amount of wages.
April 30th MTD 2010 FUT: 3,481 (-3.4%)
The rest of the report is somewhat better looking. Total taxes rose YoY (179,621 > 190,774). WIET (Withheld Income and Employment Taxes) rose (133,220 > 139,398). This indicator covers income tax, social security and medicare taxes, which are paid both by government and private employees. We don't get a breakdown on these until the Monthly Treasury Statement is published.
CIT (Corporation Income Taxes) are still running up YoY gains (27,281 > 32,301). That's helpful, especially if we begin to get some raises flowing through to employees on better profits.
Excise Taxes rose again (5,542 > 6,180). These are hard to interpret, because I think some of it is just an inflation measure. Still, it's not a bad indicator.
As soon as April's Monthly Treasury Statement appears I have a program set to run analysis, and I will publish most of that. You can tell a lot just from the spread on SS as opposed to Medicare taxes.
Nonetheless, it is very good to see that WIET rising YoY.
PS: For comparison purposes, March's WIET YoY (156,043 > 164,876) and CIT (22,174 > 29,917), Total taxes (184,139 > 204,187).