Monday, June 21, 2010
BP Statistical Review Of World Energy 2010
World oil consumption dropped 1.7% in 2009, which is the record since 1982. That is a measure of how severe the trade contraction was.
Natural gas consumption fell by 2.1%. That's the largest drop ever. Coal consumption was flat. Coal is overall the cheapest and the most used (as well as the most polluting). This gives an overall primary energy consumption drop of 1.1% for the world in 2009.
Every year I download the whole report in pdf format, but you can get just the oil portion in pdf. Either version is available in the oil box on this page. The oil segment is only 17 pages in pdf.
In this cycle, US oil consumption peaked at 20,802 THOUSAND (or 20,802,000) barrels per day in 2005, and dropped each year thereafter. In 2008 we used 19,498 THOUSAND bbd, and in 2009 18,686. I am expecting US consumption to rise at least 2.5% this year in total on a better economy for total consumption of in the range of 19150-19250 THOUSAND barrels per day.
China's oil usage last year increased 6.7%, although some of that was used to fill the strategic reserve. The US used about 21.7% of total world consumption, and China used about 10.4%.
Fun facts you probably did not know:
- Canada is using more oil per capita than the US. Its share of world consumption is about 2.5%, but its population is about 11% of the US population. This is because Canada is a big natural resources producer as well as a strong manufacturer.
- Both Mexican and Canadian oil consumption dropped less expressed as a percentage compared to the US. Those three countries make up the "North American" region, which last year consumed 26.4% of the world's oil.
- Asia-Pacific (including China, Japan and India) consumed 31.1% of the world's oil in 2009. Total consumption in this region grew by 1%, and would have grown by much more if it had not been for Japan's staggering 10.7% drop in consumption. This year the region's oil usage will grow by 4-5%.
- Reserves/Production ratios have been rising for the last few years. We'll see if this holds during the recovery and improved production.
- South and Central America is second only to the Middle East in proved reserves.
- World oil production fell by 2 million bbd. But OPEC production fell by 2.5 million barrels, and US production rose by 460,000 bbd. Non-OPEC production rose by less than that (450,000 bbd), so the US increase was the source of the increase. Another way of looking at this is that US oil production increased by 7% last year.
- Chinese oil production dropped by 2.8% last year.
- Production in both Canada (-1%) and Mexico (-6.2%) dropped last year.
- China is moving toward a deep oil hole. The US produced 7,195 thousand bbd and consumed less than 19,000. We are producing more than 1/3rd of our own needs, and Canada is by far the biggest single supplier of our imports. China produced 3,790 bbd, and consumed 8,625. With 1.3 billion people to feed, clothe and move, China is not going to be able to cut consumption the way we can. In 2005, China consumed 6,894 bbd and produced 3,627. China has to find reliable sources of affordable supply.
Usually one can get a better estimate from the weekly reports by comparing cumulative totals, but I am currently confused. The old text format isn't available any more. Anyway, look at last week's report - cumulative YoY supply is negative in every category except other oils, but other oils have risen over 47% this year cumulatively, so total supply is up over 6%. Other oils include motor oils, industrial greases, etc, and also feed stock for plastics and chemicals. In the last few months, diesel consumption seems to have risen substantially, which is one reason I do not agree with the economic doomsters. But gasoline consumption (look at four week totals) is still down YoY, although diesel and other is taking up the slack.
Full US weekly petroleum reports are available by segment here. There is at this point an ethanol glut of impressive proportions and stocks of gasoline are very impressive. I believe gasoline consumption trends will continue to be flat to declining on demographics and fleet replacement. Net imports have been dropping:
More than half of US petroleum consumption is consumed for uses other than personal vehicle transport. Farms consume quite a bit, as does construction (less now than in recent years), mining, freight transport, mass transport, and air transport. Older data, but this shows some of the split:
Transport is by the far the largest sector by consumption. You can get an inkling of the transportation split here. While personal transport is not static, it is far persistent than industrial usage. You can see how much industrial usage has dropped over the last two recession years just by looking at the gasoline/diesel swing from 2004-2009. But in normal times, less than 50% is gasoline usage, and a considerable proportion of that is still production associated. Residual fuel oil is used mostly for ships.
Obviously, it will increase; the question is why? Because "unconventional" sources become conventional, or because usage declines?
The really interesting question is about Asia. What happens there?
I think this is an unfair comparison, because oil usage for production and transport of goods is relatively higher in China. But still, think about it. They are in a trap.
Hybrid cars have not been as big a success as it seemed they would a couple of years ago. The batteries are expensive and wear out quickly. They cost too much more than the conventional cars that are the competition. The depreciation is faster due to the short battery life.
It appears that hydrogen may well be the fuel of the future but the technology is not yet ready for prime time. Oil is going to be the primary fuel for transportation for the next 25-40 years. Our energy policy should recognize that and start developing our easy to reach petroleum reserves like ANWR and the Santa Barbara Channe.
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