Wednesday, August 25, 2010
The rhetoric does not tell the story about the real level. This is world limbo champion low. Don't worry - China is going to try to beat us on this curve. I'm not sure whether they can, but I am sure they are going to try!
Durables wasn't really bad at all, but WS is in one of its periodic screaming-crying-running frenzies. They have been for the last month, because the response to Iran's nuclear announcements and desert fireworks was "Omigod! I better sell oil quick before it goes even lower!" And those who followed that logic are in fact very glad they did. We have a genuine glut of oil and finished products. Part of the problem is that once again, the forecast end-of-the-gulf-world-via-hurricane has not materialized.
They laughed at me years ago when I said this would end up being multi-year recession and close to double-digit. They asked "What does a dumb-ass cracker from GA know?" They ain't laughing no more. NBER is not going to be declaring an end to this recession this year.
I do have some relatively good news, though. ( If we want to face up to reality and do what works.) I am working on some graphs to explain. It's sure not good news for China, though. The income cycle, which I track, is six months to a year ahead of the GDP cycle at a minimum. And I still have decent income trends. Plus, the current Wall Street running-with-knives bit is going to help producers a bit and help average consumers a bit. Financial bonuses - not so much. That's why they're running and screaming.
I read last week they're moving call centers back from India to the US of A. That I like.
Very Early Signs of Pregnancy
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