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Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Gurgle, Snicker

New home sales full report, but why would you read it? The chart tells the story:

The rhetoric does not tell the story about the real level. This is world limbo champion low. Don't worry - China is going to try to beat us on this curve. I'm not sure whether they can, but I am sure they are going to try!

Durables wasn't really bad at all, but WS is in one of its periodic screaming-crying-running frenzies. They have been for the last month, because the response to Iran's nuclear announcements and desert fireworks was "Omigod! I better sell oil quick before it goes even lower!" And those who followed that logic are in fact very glad they did. We have a genuine glut of oil and finished products. Part of the problem is that once again, the forecast end-of-the-gulf-world-via-hurricane has not materialized.

They laughed at me years ago when I said this would end up being multi-year recession and close to double-digit. They asked "What does a dumb-ass cracker from GA know?" They ain't laughing no more. NBER is not going to be declaring an end to this recession this year.

I do have some relatively good news, though. ( If we want to face up to reality and do what works.) I am working on some graphs to explain. It's sure not good news for China, though. The income cycle, which I track, is six months to a year ahead of the GDP cycle at a minimum. And I still have decent income trends. Plus, the current Wall Street running-with-knives bit is going to help producers a bit and help average consumers a bit. Financial bonuses - not so much. That's why they're running and screaming.

Based on the tone of your post, I'm going to go guess that you aren't backing up the truck on Caterpillar stock at these prices.
Oil surely must be a "sure thing" though. It ONLY goes up! Um, well, so I am told anyway and if I conveniently forget what happened heading into 2008's Christmas season.
Who was laughing?

I read last week they're moving call centers back from India to the US of A. That I like.
Ok further on with about info it says I burn about 312 calories. I wear sweats and do perspire. I up the mph and doing some jogging as well during this.
Very Early Signs of Pregnancy
"running-with-knives"- LOL! I love that :)
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