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Friday, December 03, 2010

The Moment Of Truth Two

The November employment report is sooooooo bad. So bad. Every time I look at another table it gets worse. And doing the two-month numbers makes it even worse.

I'll probably cover this in detail after I recover from the wretched shock of it, but that might take major mood-altering life steps.

Among the horrible clarifications this thing contains, the paradox of low wage tax receipts combined with falling initial unemployment claims can only now be reconciled with this report by persons losing jobs but now being unable to qualify for unemployment. So it's a fool's paradise. Job losers rose by 390,000 in November.

I will eventually go into this in more detail, but right now I need to recover from the shock of it. And you know, I was expecting something much worse than most. Yesterday I was reading the expectations and hollering at the screen "In what universe, you $(##!!;! Lay off the egg-nog, suckers, you're obstructing the blood flow to your brains!"

But this morning I have to apply the same language to myself. I actually expected a marginal gain in Census employed, about 20K. Instead, -173,000. There is nothing like missing by 200,000 to wake you up in a very unpleasant manner.

According to household, the October/November combined employment loss from September is 503,000 jobs. Going to the specialty tables makes it worse. Emp/pop ratio is down again to 58.2%.

The more you read of this thing the worse it gets. The 25-years and over unemployment rate for those with a four year college degree or better rose an epic 0.4% in one month, rising from 4.4% in September to 4.7% in October to 5.1% in November. This is dreadful.

Here's a graph of the 25 and older, BA and over (LNS13027662) data:

Meeting and exceeding our former unemployment achievements!


That chart is a nice advertisement for not going to college unless you're getting a hard science major. You may as well get a head start on your table-waiting career at 18 instead of postponing it 4 years. The work experience will make you night manager before the degree will.
Charles - the rate is still far, far better than for HS grads.

It's just a terrible job market.
Dear MoM, It appears to me that there are determined elements within the US whose objectives are aimed at obstructing the ingenuity and can do spirit that once aided economic recovery. This vast army is found in both State and Federal government, sprawling bureaucracies that seemed staffed by those largely hostile to productive endeavour.

Unfortunately one must conclude that the US no longer has enough people in positions of authority who actually understand how to create an atmosphere in which business can thrive. It being abundantly clear that the leader of this movement is none other than the President himself, a man who appears to think that driving up energy costs will create jobs. A destructive ideology that permeates his entire administration.

Only a new practical leader can overturn this, until that arrives the US will go on declining.
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