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Tuesday, February 01, 2011

Data Dump Up Late Tonight

Snow shoveling got in the way.

The revisions to Q4 GDP are already mounting. November construction spending was revised down and December dropped pretty substantially. But who knows how Q4 GDP will end up? That was one of the oddest quarterly reports I've seen in a long while. I have trouble believing all of the inventory figures, and what does one make of -3.20% on Gross Private Domestic Investment and +3.44% on net exports.

The export number is partly due to oil imports (deflated), while exports aren't, but exports are doing decently.

Comments:
I've regained some lost optimism today for what it is worth.

A Natural Gas Glut?

My word verification is "trampull". I'm not even going to ask, lol.
 
M_O_M,

How do your reconcile the 2.5% y/y gains in "real" personal income with the y/y nominal declines in medicare payroll receipts. Where is the income for this consumption boom coming from?
 
Mark - I guess that's green transportation of the sedan chair type?

Dis737 - Weeeel, not all payments to employees are subject to Medicare tax. Bonuses and some commissions aren't.

Also there was another big withdrawal from large time deposits in December. H.8. NSA it was about 27 billion, SA it was about 29 billion.

Lastly, given that higher spending is mostly concentrated in the higher income echelon, I think it is safe to say that investment income gains might be a factor.
 
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