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Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Is This Doom Day?

I do not know. I find I don't want to see crude oil inventories today. There is a real possibility that over the next four weeks, one day I'm going to find myself staring at a report and say to myself "That's it, we've tipped over, no way to haul out of this now." That will be Doom Day, because it will mean that we have entered into a Japanese-like cycle of grit-in-the-gears oscillations between growth and contraction.

Durable goods this morning - inventories, order and shipments ratios are troubling. Inventories too high, shipments too low and new orders fell.

Yesterday New Home sales were up (see the above link to Census Economic Indicators), but everyone forgot that FHA increased insurance premiums in April, so that jacked up quick contract rates. Thus it was probably a blip, and not a very encouraging blip at that:

FHA deserves a whole long post of its own - the worst threat to housing prices is the FHA situation, because it cuts into new home buying for the future.

API said that gas inventories are building in the US, and Mastercard said that gas purchases were down YoY, so the odds of the crude inventories report looking good are pretty poor. Oil is really trading inverse to the dollar as everyone tries to cushion risk.

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