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Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Treasury Receipts Confirm Household Employment Survey

That is, they confirm the bad numbers of the Household Employment Survey vs the good numbers of the Establishment Employment survey. I couldn't call this good news, but it is always better to know than to wander around in a deluded fog.

April 2010. April 2011. You are looking for HI receipts for April on page 6.

There was a YoY gain of 2.2%, but that is quite shocking when compared to March's YoY gain of over 5% YoY. I can only view this as indication that the rapidly rising initial claims numbers indicate rising unemployment, which was shown by the Household Survey ( -190,000 jobs ) last week.

It also seems very likely, looking at the "self" vs "wage" figures for March and April, that the havoc lies in small businesses that are being beaten down by cost increases. They're probably just giving up. I usually use the "self" returns as a proxy for small businesses. In this case, small service businesses.

This is a very large sample size of 100%, so I would take it seriously and start moving your assets to high ground. I do not think the good establishment survey figures for April jobs now hold any credibility - the net B/D adjustment NSA was 175,000. Additionally, it is hard to reconcile the gas supply(consumption) figures with growing employment.

Anyway to figure out the velocity of money
while adjusting for changes in the money supply ?
That should show economic health right ?


I'm getting an error when clicking on your "April 2010" and "April 2011" links. The links don't look mangled though. Perhaps the server is down.

Something must be done or the conspiracy theories will meet up with the Mayan calendar theories. The last thing we need is a double whammy.
Links work now.

Whew! The bonus crisis of a double whammy has been averted.
Spork - a range of formal measures tend to show velocity, but the best ersatz measure is utility consumption/production, diesel and rail.

If it's moving, it's the product of money being spent.

Mark - Treasury is down a lot.
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