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Wednesday, June 08, 2011

BP Statistical Review of World Energy!!

It's out! Download page. I download the thing every year and solemnly read through it.

Of course this only covers through 2010, but at least 2010 looked less dismal than 2009, which I did not enjoy reading at all.

Wow, there's a lot to chew on there. Give me a week and I may have a comment.
Well we could discuss the anticipated EPA coal regs, and combine that hit with the cost of the tax changes Obama wants.

= Huddled in dark, shivering.

If we're not going to do nuclear (and it's apparent we aren't) and we're not going to do oil (and we are avoiding it) and we shut down coal-sourced electricity, those electric cars are going to be very expensive to run.
Hmmm, a week spent digesting M_O_M's oil data, or a week spent working on hybrid drivetrains and multi-fuel engines.

Maybe I'd better keep my nose to the grindstone.
Neil - multi-fuel engines?

I do not share, btw, the generalized malaise over energy. I think new engines, changes in regulation to allow the more efficient diesel engines in the US, an eventual change in regulations to allow more domestic oil production - especially shale, perhaps alternate sources such as Joule is working on, and so forth will make energy less of a constraining factor in ten years and definitely less in 15 years.

But now it is a reality, and I am not sure the current push to renewables is at all realistic. For example, I am pretty sure Germany has worked itself into a real structural problem.
10 to 15 years is probably the right time frame. That's about how long it's going to take to get stuff that is actually cheaper or better (and will therefore sell without having to force anyone to buy).
As to better fuel saving autos, six months ago I went from a Honda Accord that got about 25 city 31 highway to a Toyota Camry hybrid. The hybrid gets 30 city and 40 highway. Averaging about 35mpg beteen fillups. Not only that, I love this car. It is smooth, very quiet, I know every moment what mileage I'm getting, what the outside air temps are, the direction I'm headed, and much more. In short, it's almost like being back in the cockpit. I'm sold on the hybrid idea, but I also drove a Volkswagen TDI diesel that got 40 highway during the shopping process and they are a good choice for fuel savings too. The major drawback to the hybrid as I see it is battery disposal and the cost to replace the batteries. The diesels drawback is the scarcity of fueling stations.

The thing is it is going to take at least 12 years to get a more fuel efficient fleet and, if the pressure to continue to get more efficient continues, the process will begin all over again.

I notice that the U.S. is increasing it's fuel usage at only about 2% per year. If we continue to keep it that low and increase our production here in North America, prices might stay relatively affordable.

A few places where there is a lot of oil yet to be discovered - Iraq, Iran, Africa, Russia, China, and the U.S. It turns out Israel has a huge off shore natural gas field that, knowing the Israelis penchant for technology, could hasten the technology for natural gas fueled vehicles of all types.

My word is ackbache. Igpay atinlay for backache?
I'm going to try and get one of those VW TDIs, maybe next year. The 94-95 Passats didn't have to meet EPA regs and are supposed to get even better mileage. There's a place in Seattle that rebuilds them and sells them for 14k.

Of course, I'll update my bicycle, just in case :)
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