Thursday, July 21, 2011
Eh, The Real News Is PMI Today
European PMI is off also, but at least it is still mildly positive. By September, that may not be true; the depth of the fall is significant. The truly marked degradation in German PMI suggests a hard landing for the soft patch, with the composite down a staggering 4 points from June? Eh?
France is not a manufacturing giant. French mfrg PMI at 50.1 and output at 49.7 therefore doesn't have the same implications for Europe as a whole. French services PMI is slowing although still in the 54s.
I can hardly believe I wrote that hard landing for the soft patch, but all is madness. Perhaps my esteemed editors will be merciful; anyone's brain might snap when looking from a sub-50 Chinese PMI to oil prices. Somebody's crazy. Brent over 117 with European composite PMI at 50.8, down 2.5 from June? Really???????? What are they betting on, TARP II and Leadman Sachs getting 300 billion in secret, long-term, non-interest-bearing loans from Treasury to spend at ICE?
Ideally this would all be a hallucination, but so far I cannot get these numbers to change by shutting the windows and opening them again.
Let's turn to a slightly more pleasant subject - US initial claims. Headline is 418K this morning, with a four week MA of 421,250. This is better than it has been, but shouldn't be relied upon because we are in July; seasonal adjustments are related primarily to auto manufacturing schedules, and those are bound to be a little off because of the Japanese problems. The last week in July and the first week in August are the first real checkpoints.
On a much more cheerful note, the employment base has been recalculated. The employment base is figured from state unemployment account reports approximately quarterly. In December, it was 125,845,577. In January it was 125,560,066. That was this cycle's low (compare to the previous cycle's low at 126,084,041). In April it came in at 125,572,661. In July it was reported at 125,807,389.
This figure generally lags other employment figures in both contracting and expanding cycles. (After the early 80s double recessions, it first began increasing again in 1984) It is a very "real" number; but it has the distinct effect of popping up right before a downturn. I have always thought this is because better uptake of part-time jobs due to cash-strapped workers. Of all the primary employment numbers, it is the most unbiased in one respect - it is not a sampled figure! It does seem to support NFIB's theory that July should show slightly better employment stats. The peak in the last cycle was in Q4 2008 at 133,902,387. We are still off eight million jobs, and we appear to be heading down again. This number should peak in Q4 2011, unless a miracle happens.
Philly Fed billed as "neutral" - workweek drops from June, inventories increases, unfilled orders stick, number of employees mildly up, prices paid index drops a little, but prices received drops more, shipments steady. Future expectations much better, but those change quickly.
On a personal note, let me tell you that Lyme disease really, really sucks.
Please don't give them any ideas.
It's all about how consumers are using CCs to charge food and gas.
They do not mention that this means that banks need to tighten up CC monitoring and start chopping credit limits very fast!
Additionally regarding the banking/finance picture, the mortgage insurers are being further pressed. Genworth goes to loss.
At any rate, assuming China allows a large portion of its surplus accounts to run through its fingers via graft and sweetheart loans, that's an enormous pool of cash going largely into commodities.
Yes, the world seems upside down right now. The market is bipolar - end of the world one day, life's a bowl of cherries the next. The debt deal is done, no it's not! Silver's up big one day and in the dumpers the next. All this has little conviction - low volume and IBD shows more distribution.
I'm betting that the debt deal will be done, but it will consist of little or no spending cuts and new taxes. If so, the ratings agencies may still threaten to pull the trigger on the downgrades. If so - silver, gold, and Swiss francs will reign?
I pay almost all my bills by credit card and pay the bill through on line banking. It's just so much simpler and reduces the need to carry much cash. I pay the balance every month so it's not costing me any interest.
WV = rative. Will the U.S. credit rating dive?
Plenty of people have been doing what you described, but they were paying down the balance every month. Now the broker households are charging and not paying it down!
The article is good because it explains how they know what is being charged. From the monthly totals (back to H.8 again, and also the Consumer Credit report) we know that an increasing number of people are letting those balances rise. CCs as a payment method are one thing. CCs as a financing method are quite another!!!
people in bigger trouble down the road. Payroll tax
receipts help understand the bigger picture.
Wish I read that book in 2009. Darn.
When I got to the clinic, and they had expressed their disapproval of me puddling sweat on their counter, they checked my BP. She gave the machine a funny look and checked it again: 77/55. Normal for me is about 137/95.
That sort of thing gets you a lot of attention quickly. They drew lots and lots of blood, and dumped a full unit of saline in tootsweet.
That got me back up to triple digits, and he let me leave after I promised to drink lots and lots and lots of water. Tomorrow I see the infectious disease specialist.
Polymerase chain reaction tests: 'tain't only tick-borne stuff they're testing.
They ultimately stopped the Lyme vax because too many people had silent infections and got sick from it. So if you had been infected before, it is possible that you could have a massive immune reaction just from Lyme, I think. It is more common in men.
However I do not want to scare you, but there is another group of tick-borne diseases that is more lethal.
The last and probably most rare group are the flaviruses.
Recently there was a US death from Powassan, and there have been multiple cases this year up north.
Unfortunately ricksettia and Powassan are difficult to test for in early infection, and then there is the real possibility of co-infections, so that you may have to be rotated between multiple meds.
Do not get male stubborn about this. Make sure you are being tested for all strains, and you may have to be tested multiple times. You are very ill, and if you don't have a good doctor you need to find one. Minnesota has a Powassan problem this year.
Just because they isolate one, it doesn't mean they have identified what is making you sickest. You will need to seek supportive treatment if you begin feeling ill or have a serious headache.
Please do not ignore this. I am praying for you and for any doctors presented with your case.
Are you currently on doxycycline? You should be. Please keep us up to date.
I am on Doxy. I just took the third one, 100mg twice a day. I'm on my way to the infectious disease clinic in a moment; the doctor who saw me yesterday would only release me if I agreed to today's appointment.
Thanks to everyone for the information. I'm trying not to let this keep me down, but the reality is sinking in, and now I have a better idea of what I may be facing. The multiplicity of symptoms is exhausting, and I'm getting about 3 hours of sleep a day right now.
I'm sorry to tell you this, but your best chances for a full recovery require not working and getting as much rest as you can at this point.
Since you are going to the doctor I won't belabor you with all the details. Your chances of making a full recovery are going to be highly dependent on not being heroic about this.
I don't think there are any commercial tests for Powassan, but the Minnesota Dept of Health should do testing. Make sure a test for that is performed.
Prayed for you again this morning - I know it's frightening. Don't get perturbed if all the bloodwork comes back negative at first.
You absolutely must take that doxycycline with food! If your stomach gets upset there's a liquid form you can try, but keep eating. Lots of liquids.
Do not stop the doxycycline under any circumstances.
Theoretically, the trillions thrown out there were to prevent that from happening.
So much for theory! Keynesian theory never has been tested in a real depression, and in practice, it has its downside.
In theory, if they keep throwing money it could be about 25 years. I hope we do not try to test that theory.
The thing is, we have an old-fashioned panic, and we have found a nice new modern way to make it worse.
Therefore, I am not too confident about 2017.
My word verification is "timmi", which I take to be a sincere statement of angst-filled agreement from the now-sentient Blogger WV computers. The cloud! Watch the cloud!!!
The infectious disease specialist says there's no doubt I have Lyme; she said the presentation doesn't get more classic than mine. She's had it herself, which was interesting. The urgent care doc had already ordered the tests for everything but babesiosis, and she added that.
I brought up Powassan, and she said that it's possible, but since I'm not showing any symptoms, she wants to wait and watch, and she told my wife that if she notices personality changes or severe headaches/nausea/vision problems, then to call in right away. She said there's no treatment, so nothing can be done proactively.
I'm still dehydrated, but that's improving, and my appetite is slowly coming back. I slept eight hours last night, and that's the most since this began.
regarding theory and practice-
I once came across a quote that I think put it nicely:
"In theory, there is no difference between Theory and Practice.
In practice, there is."
Eewww! Speaking of all the infectious-disease stuff: my wv= cloccu. I just know there's E.Coli in there somewhere.
The nice thing about doxy is that it knocks several of the others out as well.
Follow up! It's good that you have a doctor that has had it. It is apparently pretty widely spread.
SuperDoc told me once that effective treatment should be based purely on the clinical evidence, not on lab tests. He did get rather excited and bounce around about the folly of not testing for the complete spectrum, because as CF noted, a lot of times Lyme comes along with other infections, and then even if you are treating one the other drives you down, so you just don't get well like you should.
Don't forget to eat! Being able to sleep is probably the best indication.
It's amazing what antibiotics do for us.
The more I think about this, the more I blame the lack of up-front fiscal response. It's normally the debt write-off cycle that controls overlending, and in this case, the overlending was so severe that it just couldn't be treated symptomatically.
The more they try to treat the symptoms, the worse they make it.
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