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Thursday, July 14, 2011

Not In The Land Of Error Bars

This is May Business Inventories, and the drop in sales and rise in inventories has real economic implications:


The rise is too much.








Table 2 shows why we are getting some negative manufacturing surveys, but the wholesale trend is worse:


A 1.8% rise in inventory and a 0.2% drop in sales on wholesalers means that manufacturers' inventories were heading into trouble.

April was less of a problem. It is unlikely that wholesalers will continue to build stock at this rate. We did see this show up in order backlogs on various manufacturing surveys.



The next urgent decisive factor will be light vehicle sales at dealers for July and August.

See the next post below for the rest of today's action.

Comments:
Great statistical analysis!
 
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