Thursday, July 14, 2011
Not In The Land Of Error Bars
The rise is too much.
Table 2 shows why we are getting some negative manufacturing surveys, but the wholesale trend is worse:
A 1.8% rise in inventory and a 0.2% drop in sales on wholesalers means that manufacturers' inventories were heading into trouble.
April was less of a problem. It is unlikely that wholesalers will continue to build stock at this rate. We did see this show up in order backlogs on various manufacturing surveys.
The next urgent decisive factor will be light vehicle sales at dealers for July and August.
See the next post below for the rest of today's action.