Thursday, October 13, 2011
HSBC Emerging Market Index Q3 2011
Emerging market output growth (covering manufacturing and services) eased to a nine-quarter low in Q3 2011. Additionally, the EMI reading was the fourth-lowest in the series history, only surpassing levels registered between Q4 2008 - Q2 2009.In other words, we're in a global downturn. If world growth were to fall to the 2-2.5% level, that would qualify as a global recession. It appears we're very close to that, and we may be there.
Services follow manufacturing!
This is so bad that it makes the US look pretty decent by comparison. US initial claims don't look too bad - hardly an expansionary number, but not a collapse into the gutter either. Covered employment is 126,188,733, an increase from the summer quarter's 125,807,389. This also marks a YoY increase, with the low having been reached in the first quarter of 2011 at 125,560,066. Covered employment in the summer quarter of 2010 was 126,763,245.
Previous week's claims revised POSITIVELY. SA kicks in right about now - NSA claims of course increased strongly. The 4-week MA is now at 408K. The 4 week MA for continuing claims has been cycling in the same range for some time - a lot of recently unemployed are getting seasonal jobs.
August international trade balance didn't degenerate:
Still, it is time to bring in the brass monkeys. Input prices cannot fall quickly enough to change the overall trend; the problems in Europe are real and will not be isolated from private sector. India's clear downturn is not going to reverse quickly, and it is the game-changer. Also of concern is that as this wears on, eastern Europe is inevitably going to get dragged in somewhat. The new Chinese plan is to extend subprime loans to smaller private companies, and you all know how that ends.
PS: The Europeans are thinking of tougher stress tests, but if they do them a whole bunch of banks are going to fail. That means governments would have to pour money into them. This is not going to resolve quickly!
Now tell me labor isn't getting totally hammered
by Free Trade. the savings at the register are an illusion.
The conservative criticism of the Occupy Wall Street movement is that it is a "growing mob" (House majority leader Eric Cantor) of "shiftless protestors" (The Tea Party Express) engaged in "class warfare" (GOP presidential candidate Herman Cain) whose grievances - whatever they are - are far outside the political mainstream.
The polls don't back that up.
The organizers of OWS have limited the message to generalities, specifically so that the media can provide a positive message about the protests. No surprise there. Many of the people who view them favorably are unaware of what's actually being advocated.
I've got my trading account locked down again. How about you? I don't see much profit here, for bull or bear.
Not a platform that will resonate with main street.
Be that as it may, I doubt the media battle will be as one-sided in 2012 as it was in 2008. There are too many of his former constituencies lined up against the President.
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