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Thursday, January 05, 2012

ADP Employment For December

This report, which only covers private sector businesses, shows a big jump of 325,000 in December. Since Challenger layoffs were in line with the trend, and government has moved down the list of job-shedders in Challenger, December's BLS Employment report should be good tomorrow.

If you go to the link and go to Chart 4, you'll see one of the trends I have been watching. Construction employment has taken its first strongly positive hop since this whole thing started in 07. This marks a state-change for the US economy which I believe keeps us out of frank recession in 2012 - unless, that is, the authorities do something idiotic.

Now there is one caveat on this - the weather is such that I would expect seasonally-adjusted construction employment to show up as higher than normal regardless, but another fact is that the jobs can't show up if the work isn't there.

Another positive in this report is found in Chart 1, which tracks employment in goods-producing industries, which has now exceeded its post-recession previous high. It's nothing hugely expansionary, but the US is still hauling hod on this one, and it is hugely important. Autos are doing well, and from freight data I am convinced that both the goods numbers and the construction numbers are real.

Let's see if this is working now.
It is good to know things are moving forward in the amercai jnob market. I hope the same happens soon for the UK, as the unemployement rate is at its worst ever.
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