Thursday, January 05, 2012
ADP Employment For December
If you go to the link and go to Chart 4, you'll see one of the trends I have been watching. Construction employment has taken its first strongly positive hop since this whole thing started in 07. This marks a state-change for the US economy which I believe keeps us out of frank recession in 2012 - unless, that is, the authorities do something idiotic.
Now there is one caveat on this - the weather is such that I would expect seasonally-adjusted construction employment to show up as higher than normal regardless, but another fact is that the jobs can't show up if the work isn't there.
Another positive in this report is found in Chart 1, which tracks employment in goods-producing industries, which has now exceeded its post-recession previous high. It's nothing hugely expansionary, but the US is still hauling hod on this one, and it is hugely important. Autos are doing well, and from freight data I am convinced that both the goods numbers and the construction numbers are real.
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