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Saturday, June 09, 2012

From The German POV

This is quite vicious, and worth reading:
Seen in this light, the process of communalizing the debt of the EU's members states brings to full circle a project that the French have always viewed as something directed more against Germany than at uniting the Continent. Nicolas Sarkozy, Hollande's predecessor, believed that the best way to pursue this traditional goal was by using the novel approach of fostering a sense of solidarity with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. But Hollande is returning to the tried-and-true method of weakening the Germans by undermining their economic strength. 

The next stage in the crisis will be blatant blackmail. With their refusal to accept money from the bailout fund to recapitalize their banks, the Spanish are not far from causing the entire system to explode. They clearly figure that the Germans will lose their nerve and agree to rehabilitate their banks for them without demanding any guarantee in return that things will take a lasting turn for the better. 
A total squall of wrath, but the article is making many real points.

The arrogance of the French and the Spanish is amazing to me. The French honestly think it "right" for the Germans to pay for their lower retirement age, and the Spanish think that it only 'fair' that should get bailed out without conditions. Egads, if the Germans are going to have to bail out everyone and recapitalize every one of their neighbors, should they not have the the fun of rampaging and tearing everything down again? This is a novel thing in history..Reparations without war.
Well, the French are one thing - it's hard to see why they think they can keep this going.

The Spanish .... I'm not sure, but it looks like the bank bondholders will have be subordinated to the new money, which means major losses.

We don't know about senior bondholders yet. The Spanish aren't going to be getting free money, that's for sure.

My question: how do these banks get private capital again?

This Bloomberg article covers some of the plans and consequences. If the Spanish state is on the hook for it, we could see another downgrade.

There is no way the Germans can pay for Eurobonds - they don't have enough money. So Eurobonds cannot save the situation.
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