Thursday, June 07, 2012
It's A Milestone of Sorts
Right now I am sure that we are in a skipping recession, not a true recession.
For what it is worth, I'm predicting on or before October 2014. Sigh.
If my prediction is even remotely accurate, I wonder how much lower the unemployment rate will be (if any) when it hits.
It is a very unpleasant prospect. :(
But if we don't raise taxes next year pretty substantially, the deficit will be so high that in a few years we hit the wall anyway.
The best course is some gradualism, which implies a long period of slow growth, such that the need to restructure becomes ever more apparent.
If oil prices had stayed up, we'd be in a recession this year. If they go back up, I think we slide into an outright recession.
In a lot of ways, there's a certain amount of pain, and all you can do is move the pain around. If you make a mistake, you grow the pain pot.
If it weren't for retirements, we'd still be almost at 10% unemployment. Frightening.
It's like an endless series of gates.
WV: sheror. Sheer terror, or shhh ... error?
Reform income taxes to flatter and lower rates with few loopholes. Either keep cap-gains and dividend rates low, or eliminate business taxes so we can tax cap-gains and dividends at personal rates. That'll increase revenue without depressing economic activity.
Reign in the EPA, maybe eliminate the minimum wage to get young people back in the labor market.
Then drill, baby, drill.
Wouldn't just doing these few things would give us some breathing room (and, perhaps more importantly some confidence)? Of course, something has to be done about health care, Medicare in particular. And Social Security has to be capped somehow. Doing those things equitably and without accidentally killing people is going to be a real hat trick.
WV: "75 healent". Retirement age healing. Mycroft is back!
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