“Based on these numbers, it would not be surprising to see GDP for the region contract by 0.5% in the second quarter, though an even steeper decline could be seen if the June data disappoint.
“There is some convergence among member countries, but unfortunately only in the sense that all of the largest are now experiencing downturns.
Yippee. There aren't really bright spots here. Spain
services have been bouncing off a floor for quite a while now, and if they can stay in the bounce zone, Spain will begin to recover next year. Germany
falls into the output contraction zone in May. France
is in deep contraction. Italy
is in a very deep contraction, and in fact the market is overrating their debt.
As this wears on, the risk of falling through another floor increases.