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Monday, July 30, 2012

Markit Euro Retail PMIs

Euro retail PMI headlines at 46.4 for July, which is quite poor and a significant decline. Of the big three - France, Italy and Germany - components, Germany is by far the best at 50.3. Yet the German survey is showing real signs of stress, and it may not be above the 50 line in September. In particular, margins are declining too fast for sustainability.

France is quite poor at 46.7, a two-point drop from June, but the real news is in margins, which are collapsing. Italy trudges tragically at the rear at 40.7. Italy's curve is now worse than the worst of the 2008-2009 downturn. In short, Q3 will continue and increase the Euro recession. 

PS: Euro recession footnote - Austria's manufacturing PMI, which had been one of two in Europe to stay above the contraction line, succumbed in July.  50.1 > 47.4. There is no good news for Europe.

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