MaxedOutMama
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI US
Down again - this time to 51.8. June's final was 52.5. The expansion in stocks of finished goods reverses the contraction shown in June. That WAS a hopeful sign. Backlogs of work contracted further to a preliminary reading of 48.7 from 49.6. This is the US! You know, the global "bright spot"?
Eurozone flash PMIs can be found here. They're as depressing as they have been.No need to dwell on it.
UPS reported disappointing earnings and a lower growth forecast.
Just to round out the beyootiful picture, Spanish 2 year bond yield, 5 year bond yield, 10 year bond yield. Nothing like a five year at 7.5% and a two year at 6.6% to make you yell "confidence"! We feels it oozing from our pores. We're looking for Apricot ECB Money Scrub to remove that oozing feeling.
All the Kool Kids are carefully walking around not saying "Italy", but 2 year, 5 year, 10 year. There is only one question left - does Germany ante up to keep Italy in, or doesn't it? Italy has its boot up Germany's rear. Whichever way things go from here, Germany's gonna be hurtin'.
Comments:
<< Home
My notes from the UPS call. Not pretty:
Global trade is lagging GDP growth currently. Only 2nd time in last 10 years that this has happened. They think this is temporary.
Volume growth was driven entirely by B2C , B2B was soft
Ground package volume up 3%, with half of this due to 25% increase in lightweight products (ecommerce)
They see US GDP growth at 1% in 2nd half…”we think current 2H econ forecasts are too high”
International revs down 4% include fx impact
Double digit declines in export volume from Asia to both Europe and US (“fell off a cliff”)
Overall export volume was up 1% as growth out of Europe offset decline in Asia
See export customers trading down to less costly options
Non-US domestic volumes down 3.2%. Southern Europe had double digit declines
US outlook see rev up 1-2%, see B2B deteriorating further – weaker US outlook is primary driver behind reduced outlook “see concerning trends in US”
International, see modest uptick y/y, not due to big improvement, but lapping last year’s weak Q3
Smaller customers very concerned with potential fallout from fiscal cliff, and unwilling to invest/expand
Global trade is lagging GDP growth currently. Only 2nd time in last 10 years that this has happened. They think this is temporary.
Volume growth was driven entirely by B2C , B2B was soft
Ground package volume up 3%, with half of this due to 25% increase in lightweight products (ecommerce)
They see US GDP growth at 1% in 2nd half…”we think current 2H econ forecasts are too high”
International revs down 4% include fx impact
Double digit declines in export volume from Asia to both Europe and US (“fell off a cliff”)
Overall export volume was up 1% as growth out of Europe offset decline in Asia
See export customers trading down to less costly options
Non-US domestic volumes down 3.2%. Southern Europe had double digit declines
US outlook see rev up 1-2%, see B2B deteriorating further – weaker US outlook is primary driver behind reduced outlook “see concerning trends in US”
International, see modest uptick y/y, not due to big improvement, but lapping last year’s weak Q3
Smaller customers very concerned with potential fallout from fiscal cliff, and unwilling to invest/expand
# posted by 
: 8:20 PM
: 8:20 PM
Thanks for the info, Brian
The trade trends still seem lower than the consumer trend - not just in the US but in countries like China. I don't see this turning around quickly.
Post a Comment
The trade trends still seem lower than the consumer trend - not just in the US but in countries like China. I don't see this turning around quickly.
<< Home
