Tuesday, July 24, 2012
Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI US
Global trade is lagging GDP growth currently. Only 2nd time in last 10 years that this has happened. They think this is temporary.
Volume growth was driven entirely by B2C , B2B was soft
Ground package volume up 3%, with half of this due to 25% increase in lightweight products (ecommerce)
They see US GDP growth at 1% in 2nd half…”we think current 2H econ forecasts are too high”
International revs down 4% include fx impact
Double digit declines in export volume from Asia to both Europe and US (“fell off a cliff”)
Overall export volume was up 1% as growth out of Europe offset decline in Asia
See export customers trading down to less costly options
Non-US domestic volumes down 3.2%. Southern Europe had double digit declines
US outlook see rev up 1-2%, see B2B deteriorating further – weaker US outlook is primary driver behind reduced outlook “see concerning trends in US”
International, see modest uptick y/y, not due to big improvement, but lapping last year’s weak Q3
Smaller customers very concerned with potential fallout from fiscal cliff, and unwilling to invest/expand
The trade trends still seem lower than the consumer trend - not just in the US but in countries like China. I don't see this turning around quickly.
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