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Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Richmond Fed Collapses

It's kind of painful to look at this thing! Richmond, like Philly, is now in recession territory at -17. Finished goods inventories at 21, while backlogs are -27. So don't look for a quick upswing.

I find myself confounded by the negativity on Q2 GDP. Q2, while just slumping along, wasn't bad. 1.6? Thereabouts. It's Q3 that's gonna make us all cry.

Looks like we are just one or two more QE's away from perfection.
Equities down (on bad economy), yields down ('cause bonds grow to the sky, natch), grains down (on rain forcasts--yay!), metals up. QE on the way?

It's gonna be fun and games on Wall Street for a while. A little while, anyway.
Anon - yes, and since it's really a circle, not a line, that means we are one or two QEs away from utter failure.

Ultimately, any successful stimulative measure MUST get more money moving through more channels, i.e., increase velocity. The Fed's efforts have largely failed (aside from the TARP stuffing money scheme) because they are not able to do so in this environment.

Any future ideas have to be at least tested against that yardstick.
Neil - the function of the NY Fed is to keep traders happy.

It has been and it will be.
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