Sunday, August 12, 2012
About Ryan's Candidacy
There is a surprising amount that could be cut pretty easily. After that it gets hard.
But realistically, our ability to stave off an OMG moment really comes down to 2015 to 2017. After that we lose control.
I am also assuming that we raise taxes before then.
Doubtful. Now that GDP is mostly G any cuts will feel like arms & legs, and neither party will suffer that pain. I fully expect they'll continue trillion dollar deficits... until they can't. The resolution of the "fiscal cliff" will be telling.
My sense of macroeconomic timing sucks, but I really can't see it going past 2016 (although I expect it "sooner rather than later").
The longer term balance will be a bitter, ugly fight. In the shorter term, there's some stuff we can do.
The current energy revolution is helping the economy far more than anyone realizes.
The triumph of hope over experience? :-)
The current energy revolution...
... is a bit overblown from people talking their book. After one prominent resource guy promoted it as the "second coming" I did my own research and I was not impressed. It certainly helps, but it is not a savior.
The fracking and oil shale boom buys us some time, and that's precisely what is needed. It doesn't matter that it's not a permanent solution.
However... we don't yet have the means to use it as an effective alternative, and we also lack facilities to export it. Consequently we're already mired in an oversupply that's hampering further development.
Believe me, it's all good, but it's not good enough.
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